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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Arnold Allen vs Aaron Pico

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Featherweight

Official forecast

Result

Not scored (card changed)

Result details unavailable.

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Arnold AllenvsAaron Pico

Model pick: Aaron Pico (57.4%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 43 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Arnold Allen: 15 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Aaron Pico: 2 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickAaron Pico57.4%

Supporting the pick3

  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Aaron Pico
    Arnold Allen 0.39, Aaron Pico 2.00.
  • AgeEdge: Aaron Pico
    Arnold Allen 32.0 yrs, Aaron Pico 30.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Aaron Pico
    Arnold Allen 16.63, Aaron Pico 28.25.

Working against the pick3

  • Striking defenseEdge: Arnold Allen
    Arnold Allen 60.2%, Aaron Pico 45.2%.
  • Longest win streakEdge: Arnold Allen
    Arnold Allen 10, Aaron Pico 1.
  • Prior UFC win rateEdge: Arnold Allen
    Arnold Allen 80.0%, Aaron Pico 50.0%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Arnold Allen 16.6, Aaron Pico 28.2. Edge: Aaron Pico.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Arnold Allen 14.9, Aaron Pico 14.2. Edge: Aaron Pico.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Arnold Allen +1.8, Aaron Pico +14.0. Edge: Aaron Pico.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Arnold Allen 44.0%, Aaron Pico 53.8%. Edge: Aaron Pico.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Arnold Allen 60.2%, Aaron Pico 45.2%. Edge: Arnold Allen.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Arnold Allen 0.09, Aaron Pico 0.00. Edge: Arnold Allen.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Arnold Allen 0.65, Aaron Pico 4.00. Edge: Aaron Pico.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Arnold Allen 0.39, Aaron Pico 2.00. Edge: Aaron Pico.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Arnold Allen 60.0%, Aaron Pico 50.0%. Edge: Arnold Allen.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Arnold Allen 73.1%, Aaron Pico —.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Arnold Allen 0:42, Aaron Pico 1:22. Edge: Aaron Pico.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Arnold Allen 0.09, Aaron Pico 0.00. Edge: Arnold Allen.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Arnold Allen 33.3%, Aaron Pico 0.0%. Edge: Arnold Allen.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Arnold Allen 2, Aaron Pico 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Arnold Allen 2, Aaron Pico 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Arnold Allen 8, Aaron Pico 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Arnold Allen 14:40, Aaron Pico 15:00. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Arnold Allen 15, Aaron Pico 2. Edge: Arnold Allen.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 24 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 16 May 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Arnold Allen

UFC record 12-3 · 15 detailed UFC fights · Distance Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED89.3
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED67.2

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Aaron Pico

UFC record 1-1 · 2 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker · Wrestling Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.3
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab