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FIGHT FORECAST
Fight Forecast

The numbers behind the fight.

Probabilistic UFC matchup analysis with forecasts locked before every event, transparent results and experimental fight simulation.

Next event · UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker · Sat 7 Nov 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

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Next event: UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker

Full card (14 bouts) →

Sat 7 Nov 2026 · Official forecasts locked 27 Oct 2026, 04:21 UTC · 5 official forecasts · 9 bouts without an official forecast

Card changed after forecasts were locked. 3 locked bout(s) are no longer on the card and will not be scored.

Featured: main event, the closest official forecast and the strongest official forecast. A favourite can still lose.

Track record

See the full record →
Current model · live record5-271.4% · N=7 · Very small sample
Latest completed event5-2UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan · 5 not scored
Forecasts locked before each eventAlwaysLocked forecasts are never edited after the fact

The headline record counts only official forecasts locked before each event under the current model. Earlier models are kept in the record archive.

Fighters

Fighter ratings are descriptive domain scores (striking, power, defense, wrestling, chin and cardio) — not rankings and not win probabilities. Browse ratings by domain.

Lab

Experimental

Outcome simulation

Turns the model's winner, distance and method estimates into six possible outcomes and draws random fights from them.

Generative fight simulation

Builds fights action by action from fighters' past tendencies, then shows a playback. Promising research, not a forecast.

How Fight Forecast works

Locked before the fight

Every official forecast is frozen with a timestamp before the event and never edited afterwards.

Probability, not certainty

A 65% estimate means the favourite should lose about one time in three. Upsets are part of the record.

Graded in public

Results, exclusions and post-fight reviews sit next to the locked forecast.

Versioned models

Each forecast names the model version that produced it; retired models keep their own record.

Read the methodology →