Model pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta (51.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 49 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Waldo Cortes Acosta: 14 prior detailed UFC fights
Johnny Walker: 17 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickWaldo Cortes Acosta51.2%
Waldo Cortes AcostaJohnny Walker
+Supporting the pick3
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta 7.82, Johnny Walker 0.72.
7.820.72
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
Prior UFC win rateEdge: Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta 71.4%, Johnny Walker 52.9%.
71.4%52.9%
Takedown defenseEdge: Waldo Cortes Acosta
Waldo Cortes Acosta 69.7%, Johnny Walker 50.0%.
69.7%50.0%
−Working against the pick3
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Johnny Walker
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1.13, Johnny Walker 7.19.
1.137.19
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Striking accuracyEdge: Johnny Walker
Waldo Cortes Acosta 47.5%, Johnny Walker 53.7%.
47.5%53.7%
AgeEdge: Johnny Walker
Waldo Cortes Acosta 35.1 yrs, Johnny Walker 34.6 yrs.
35.1 yrs34.6 yrs
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance27%
KO/TKO63%
Submission10%
Decision27%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Johnny Walker
KO/TKO
34%
31%
Submission
3%
4%
Decision
14%
13%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Waldo Cortes AcostaJohnny Walker
Biggest statistical gaps
Waldo Cortes Acosta has more takedown production: 0.12 takedowns landed per round to Johnny Walker’s 0.07.
Waldo Cortes Acosta lands 23.1 significant strikes per round to Johnny Walker’s 14.6.
Johnny Walker hunts more submissions: 0.10 attempts per round to Waldo Cortes Acosta’s 0.03.
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0.03, Johnny Walker 0.10. Edge: Johnny Walker.
0.030.10
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Waldo Cortes Acosta 50.0%, Johnny Walker 88.9%. Edge: Johnny Walker.
50.0%88.9%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Waldo Cortes Acosta 5, Johnny Walker 7. Style difference, no edge.
57
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0, Johnny Walker 1. Style difference, no edge.
01
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Waldo Cortes Acosta 5, Johnny Walker 1. Style difference, no edge.
51
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Waldo Cortes Acosta 11:16, Johnny Walker 6:53. Style difference, no edge.
11:166:53
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Waldo Cortes Acosta 14, Johnny Walker 17. Edge: Johnny Walker.
1417
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 7 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 3 Oct 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (14 detailed fights; as of Sat 12 Sep 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED87.9
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED91.3
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 9-7 · 17 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)82
Power89
Striking defense73
Takedown defense63
WrestlingProvisional measure65
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (17 detailed fights; as of Sat 3 Oct 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING71.4
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING75.5
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
