Model pick: Elijah Smith (77.3%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 23 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Davey Grant: 16 prior detailed UFC fights
Elijah Smith: 3 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickElijah Smith77.3%
Davey GrantElijah Smith
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Elijah Smith
Davey Grant 40.9 yrs, Elijah Smith 24.2 yrs.
40.9 yrs24.2 yrs
Control production against prior oppositionEdge: Elijah Smith
Davey Grant -30.20, Elijah Smith 90.85.
-30.2090.85
Control production compared with opponents’ normal allowance.
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Elijah Smith
Davey Grant 1.88, Elijah Smith 7.25.
1.887.25
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
−Working against the pick3
Takedown prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Davey Grant
Davey Grant -0.07, Elijah Smith -0.84.
-0.07-0.84
Takedown prevention relative to opponents’ usual success.
Takedown defenseEdge: Davey Grant
Davey Grant 65.2%, Elijah Smith 46.2%.
65.2%46.2%
Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Davey Grant
Davey Grant 25.31, Elijah Smith 15.50.
25.3115.50
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance55%
KO/TKO26%
Submission19%
Decision55%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Davey Grant
Elijah Smith
KO/TKO
8%
20%
Submission
3%
15%
Decision
12%
42%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Davey GrantElijah Smith
Biggest statistical gaps
Elijah Smith absorbs fewer strikes: 7.2 per round to Davey Grant’s 18.3.
Elijah Smith controls more: 1:23 per round to Davey Grant’s 0:33.
Elijah Smith completes more of their takedown attempts: 75.0% to Davey Grant’s 38.7%.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Davey Grant 25.3, Elijah Smith 15.5. Edge: Davey Grant.
25.315.5
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Davey Grant 18.3, Elijah Smith 7.2. Edge: Elijah Smith.
18.37.2
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Davey Grant +7.0, Elijah Smith +8.3. Edge: Elijah Smith.
+7.0+8.3
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Davey Grant 45.5%, Elijah Smith 54.7%. Edge: Elijah Smith.
45.5%54.7%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Davey Grant 54.8%, Elijah Smith 51.7%. Edge: Davey Grant.
54.8%51.7%
Knockdownsper round
Davey Grant 0.10, Elijah Smith 0.17. Edge: Elijah Smith.
0.100.17
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Davey Grant 0.74, Elijah Smith 0.67. Edge: Davey Grant.
0.740.67
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Davey Grant 0.29, Elijah Smith 0.50. Edge: Elijah Smith.
0.290.50
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Davey Grant 38.7%, Elijah Smith 75.0%. Edge: Elijah Smith.
38.7%75.0%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Davey Grant 65.2%, Elijah Smith 46.2%. Edge: Davey Grant.
65.2%46.2%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Davey Grant 0:33, Elijah Smith 1:23. Edge: Elijah Smith.
0:331:23
Submission attemptsper round
Davey Grant 0.05, Elijah Smith 0.33. Edge: Elijah Smith.
0.050.33
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Davey Grant 44.4%, Elijah Smith 66.7%. Edge: Elijah Smith.
44.4%66.7%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Davey Grant 3, Elijah Smith 1. Style difference, no edge.
31
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Davey Grant 1, Elijah Smith 1. Style difference, no edge.
11
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Davey Grant 5, Elijah Smith 1. Style difference, no edge.
51
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Davey Grant 12:01, Elijah Smith 5:07. Style difference, no edge.
12:015:07
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Davey Grant 16, Elijah Smith 3. Edge: Davey Grant.
163
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 7 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (16 detailed fights; as of Sat 25 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED79.1
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED81.3
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 3-0 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Ground Heavy · Submission Hunter
Ratings
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)79
Power81
Striking defense75
Takedown defense67
WrestlingProvisional measure80
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (3 detailed fights; as of Sat 14 Mar 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: LIMITED83.7
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
