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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Light Heavyweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev won by KO/TKO Knee · round 1, 2:38

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Nikita KrylovvsAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

Model pick: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (71.1%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 29 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Nikita Krylov: 22 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev: 3 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev71.1%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
    Nikita Krylov 34.0 yrs, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 25.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
    Nikita Krylov 10.82, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 2.67.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
    Nikita Krylov 48.1%, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 57.9%.

Working against the pick1

  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Nikita Krylov
    Nikita Krylov 17.23, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 6.33.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev absorbs fewer strikes: 2.7 per round to Nikita Krylov’s 10.8.
  • Nikita Krylov lands 17.2 significant strikes per round to Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev’s 6.3.
  • Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev completes more of their takedown attempts: 75.0% to Nikita Krylov’s 38.3%.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Nikita Krylov 17.2, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 6.3. Edge: Nikita Krylov.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Nikita Krylov 10.8, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 2.7. Edge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Nikita Krylov +6.4, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev +3.7. Edge: Nikita Krylov.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Nikita Krylov 54.2%, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 57.6%. Edge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Nikita Krylov 48.1%, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 57.9%. Edge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Nikita Krylov 0.15, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 0.67. Edge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Nikita Krylov 1.50, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 1.33. Edge: Nikita Krylov.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Nikita Krylov 0.57, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 1.00. Edge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Nikita Krylov 38.3%, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 75.0%. Edge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Nikita Krylov 53.2%, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev —.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Nikita Krylov 1:23, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 0:48. Edge: Nikita Krylov.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Nikita Krylov 0.30, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 0.67. Edge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Nikita Krylov 83.3%, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 100.0%. Edge: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Nikita Krylov 5, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Nikita Krylov 5, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Nikita Krylov 2, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Nikita Krylov 6:56, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 1:30. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Nikita Krylov 22, Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev 3. Edge: Nikita Krylov.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 24 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 11 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Nikita Krylov

UFC record 12-10 · 22 detailed UFC fights · Submission Hunter · Control Grappler

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING80.0
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED65.8

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev

UFC record 3-0 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker · Ground Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab