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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Heavyweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Alexander Volkov won by U-DEC · round 3, 5:00

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Alexander VolkovvsRizvan Kuniev

Model pick: Alexander Volkov (53.3%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 47 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Alexander Volkov: 19 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Rizvan Kuniev: 3 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickAlexander Volkov53.3%

Supporting the pick3

  • Striking defenseEdge: Alexander Volkov
    Alexander Volkov 54.4%, Rizvan Kuniev 47.8%.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Alexander Volkov
    Alexander Volkov 23.58, Rizvan Kuniev 17.11.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Alexander Volkov
    Alexander Volkov 57.7%, Rizvan Kuniev 48.0%.

Working against the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Rizvan Kuniev
    Alexander Volkov 38.0 yrs, Rizvan Kuniev 34.0 yrs.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Rizvan Kuniev
    Alexander Volkov 69.4%, Rizvan Kuniev 92.0%.
  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Rizvan Kuniev
    Alexander Volkov 5, Rizvan Kuniev 1.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Alexander Volkov brings more wrestling volume: 0.30 takedown attempts per round to Rizvan Kuniev’s 0.00.
  • Alexander Volkov has more takedown production: 0.19 takedowns landed per round to Rizvan Kuniev’s 0.00.
  • Rizvan Kuniev controls more: 1:02 per round to Alexander Volkov’s 0:26.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Alexander Volkov 23.6, Rizvan Kuniev 17.1. Edge: Alexander Volkov.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Alexander Volkov 14.2, Rizvan Kuniev 11.9. Edge: Rizvan Kuniev.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Alexander Volkov +9.4, Rizvan Kuniev +5.2. Edge: Alexander Volkov.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Alexander Volkov 57.7%, Rizvan Kuniev 48.0%. Edge: Alexander Volkov.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Alexander Volkov 54.4%, Rizvan Kuniev 47.8%. Edge: Alexander Volkov.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Alexander Volkov 0.08, Rizvan Kuniev 0.11. Edge: Rizvan Kuniev.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Alexander Volkov 0.30, Rizvan Kuniev 0.00. Edge: Alexander Volkov.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Alexander Volkov 0.19, Rizvan Kuniev 0.00. Edge: Alexander Volkov.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Alexander Volkov 62.5%, Rizvan Kuniev —.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Alexander Volkov 69.4%, Rizvan Kuniev 92.0%. Edge: Rizvan Kuniev.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Alexander Volkov 0:26, Rizvan Kuniev 1:02. Edge: Rizvan Kuniev.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Alexander Volkov 0.04, Rizvan Kuniev 0.00. Edge: Alexander Volkov.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Alexander Volkov 50.0%, Rizvan Kuniev 50.0%.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Alexander Volkov 6, Rizvan Kuniev 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Alexander Volkov 1, Rizvan Kuniev 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Alexander Volkov 7, Rizvan Kuniev 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Alexander Volkov 12:50, Rizvan Kuniev 13:06. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Alexander Volkov 19, Rizvan Kuniev 3. Edge: Alexander Volkov.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 24 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Alexander Volkov

UFC record 14-5 · 19 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED85.4
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED74.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Rizvan Kuniev

UFC record 2-1 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Clinch Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED81.3
CardioEvidence: LIMITED82.8

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab