Skip to content
FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Light Heavyweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Dominick Reyes won by KO/TKO Punch · round 1, 2:40

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Azamat MurzakanovvsDominick Reyes

Model pick: Azamat Murzakanov (54.1%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 46 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Azamat Murzakanov: 7 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Dominick Reyes: 15 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickAzamat Murzakanov54.1%

Supporting the pick3

  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Azamat Murzakanov
    Azamat Murzakanov 1, Dominick Reyes 5.
  • Prior UFC win rateEdge: Azamat Murzakanov
    Azamat Murzakanov 85.7%, Dominick Reyes 66.7%.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Azamat Murzakanov
    Azamat Murzakanov 55.8%, Dominick Reyes 49.6%.

Working against the pick2

  • ReachEdge: Dominick Reyes
    Azamat Murzakanov 180 cm, Dominick Reyes 196 cm.
  • AgeEdge: Dominick Reyes
    Azamat Murzakanov 37.0 yrs, Dominick Reyes 36.0 yrs.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Azamat Murzakanov brings more wrestling volume: 0.88 takedown attempts per round to Dominick Reyes’s 0.25.
  • Azamat Murzakanov has more takedown production: 0.19 takedowns landed per round to Dominick Reyes’s 0.07.
  • Dominick Reyes completes more of their takedown attempts: 28.6% to Azamat Murzakanov’s 21.4%.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Azamat Murzakanov 17.7, Dominick Reyes 21.0. Edge: Dominick Reyes.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Azamat Murzakanov 13.0, Dominick Reyes 14.3. Edge: Azamat Murzakanov.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Azamat Murzakanov +4.7, Dominick Reyes +6.7. Edge: Dominick Reyes.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Azamat Murzakanov 56.5%, Dominick Reyes 53.6%. Edge: Azamat Murzakanov.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Azamat Murzakanov 55.8%, Dominick Reyes 49.6%. Edge: Azamat Murzakanov.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Azamat Murzakanov 0.38, Dominick Reyes 0.25. Edge: Azamat Murzakanov.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Azamat Murzakanov 0.88, Dominick Reyes 0.25. Edge: Azamat Murzakanov.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Azamat Murzakanov 0.19, Dominick Reyes 0.07. Edge: Azamat Murzakanov.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Azamat Murzakanov 21.4%, Dominick Reyes 28.6%. Edge: Dominick Reyes.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Azamat Murzakanov 88.9%, Dominick Reyes 82.9%. Edge: Azamat Murzakanov.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Azamat Murzakanov 0:23, Dominick Reyes 0:18. Edge: Azamat Murzakanov.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Azamat Murzakanov 0.06, Dominick Reyes 0.07. Edge: Dominick Reyes.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Azamat Murzakanov 83.3%, Dominick Reyes 70.0%. Edge: Azamat Murzakanov.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Azamat Murzakanov 5, Dominick Reyes 6. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Azamat Murzakanov 0, Dominick Reyes 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Azamat Murzakanov 1, Dominick Reyes 3. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Azamat Murzakanov 8:46, Dominick Reyes 8:23. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Azamat Murzakanov 7, Dominick Reyes 15. Edge: Dominick Reyes.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 24 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 11 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Azamat Murzakanov

UFC record 6-1 · 7 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING80.8
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING87.2

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Dominick Reyes

UFC record 10-5 · 15 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING76.4
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING70.8

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab