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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Middleweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Abus Magomedov won by SUB Guillotine Choke · round 1, 1:44

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Abus MagomedovvsCam Rowston

Model pick: Cam Rowston (67.1%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 33 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Abus Magomedov: 8 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Cam Rowston: 3 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickCam Rowston67.1%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Cam Rowston
    Abus Magomedov 36.0 yrs, Cam Rowston 31.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Cam Rowston
    Abus Magomedov 13.28, Cam Rowston 24.67.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Cam Rowston
    Abus Magomedov 14.50, Cam Rowston 8.83.

Working against the pick2

  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Abus Magomedov
    Abus Magomedov 0.72, Cam Rowston 0.50.
  • Submission attempts per roundEdge: Abus Magomedov
    Abus Magomedov 0.17, Cam Rowston 0.00.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Abus Magomedov hunts more submissions: 0.17 attempts per round to Cam Rowston’s 0.00.
  • Cam Rowston controls more: 2:08 per round to Abus Magomedov’s 1:07.
  • Cam Rowston lands 24.7 significant strikes per round to Abus Magomedov’s 13.3.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Abus Magomedov 13.3, Cam Rowston 24.7. Edge: Cam Rowston.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Abus Magomedov 14.5, Cam Rowston 8.8. Edge: Cam Rowston.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Abus Magomedov -1.2, Cam Rowston +15.8. Edge: Cam Rowston.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Abus Magomedov 48.7%, Cam Rowston 48.5%. Edge: Abus Magomedov.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Abus Magomedov 56.4%, Cam Rowston 53.9%. Edge: Abus Magomedov.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Abus Magomedov 0.11, Cam Rowston 0.17. Edge: Cam Rowston.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Abus Magomedov 1.22, Cam Rowston 1.17. Edge: Abus Magomedov.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Abus Magomedov 0.72, Cam Rowston 0.50. Edge: Abus Magomedov.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Abus Magomedov 59.1%, Cam Rowston 42.9%. Edge: Abus Magomedov.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Abus Magomedov 100.0%, Cam Rowston 100.0%.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Abus Magomedov 1:07, Cam Rowston 2:08. Edge: Cam Rowston.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Abus Magomedov 0.17, Cam Rowston 0.00. Edge: Abus Magomedov.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Abus Magomedov 60.0%, Cam Rowston 66.7%. Edge: Cam Rowston.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Abus Magomedov 1, Cam Rowston 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Abus Magomedov 2, Cam Rowston 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Abus Magomedov 2, Cam Rowston 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Abus Magomedov 11:06, Cam Rowston 12:04. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Abus Magomedov 8, Cam Rowston 3. Edge: Abus Magomedov.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 24 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 27 Jun 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Abus Magomedov

UFC record 5-3 · 8 detailed UFC fights · Wrestling Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING77.5
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING59.1

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Cam Rowston

UFC record 3-0 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Ground Heavy · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.9
CardioEvidence: LIMITED75.0

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab