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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Featherweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Alexander Volkanovski won by KO/TKO Punches · round 2, 4:54

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Alexander VolkanovskivsMovsar Evloev

Model pick: Movsar Evloev (66.3%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 34 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Alexander Volkanovski: 18 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Movsar Evloev: 10 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickMovsar Evloev66.3%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Movsar Evloev
    Alexander Volkanovski 38.0 yrs, Movsar Evloev 32.0 yrs.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Movsar Evloev
    Alexander Volkanovski 0.52, Movsar Evloev 1.59.
  • Current win streakEdge: Movsar Evloev
    Alexander Volkanovski 2, Movsar Evloev 10.

Working against the pick2

  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Alexander Volkanovski
    Alexander Volkanovski 28.81, Movsar Evloev 19.53.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Alexander Volkanovski
    Alexander Volkanovski 57.1%, Movsar Evloev 47.6%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Movsar Evloev has more takedown production: 1.59 takedowns landed per round to Alexander Volkanovski’s 0.52.
  • Alexander Volkanovski scores more knockdowns: 0.10 per round to Movsar Evloev’s 0.00.
  • Movsar Evloev brings more wrestling volume: 3.03 takedown attempts per round to Alexander Volkanovski’s 1.54.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Alexander Volkanovski 28.8, Movsar Evloev 19.5. Edge: Alexander Volkanovski.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Alexander Volkanovski 15.9, Movsar Evloev 14.0. Edge: Movsar Evloev.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Alexander Volkanovski +12.9, Movsar Evloev +5.5. Edge: Alexander Volkanovski.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Alexander Volkanovski 57.1%, Movsar Evloev 47.6%. Edge: Alexander Volkanovski.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Alexander Volkanovski 58.7%, Movsar Evloev 61.3%. Edge: Movsar Evloev.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Alexander Volkanovski 0.10, Movsar Evloev 0.00. Edge: Alexander Volkanovski.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Alexander Volkanovski 1.54, Movsar Evloev 3.03. Edge: Movsar Evloev.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Alexander Volkanovski 0.52, Movsar Evloev 1.59. Edge: Movsar Evloev.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Alexander Volkanovski 34.0%, Movsar Evloev 52.6%. Edge: Movsar Evloev.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Alexander Volkanovski 68.9%, Movsar Evloev 61.1%. Edge: Alexander Volkanovski.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Alexander Volkanovski 0:57, Movsar Evloev 1:47. Edge: Movsar Evloev.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Alexander Volkanovski 0.06, Movsar Evloev 0.06. Edge: Alexander Volkanovski.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Alexander Volkanovski 33.3%, Movsar Evloev 0.0%. Edge: Alexander Volkanovski.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Alexander Volkanovski 5, Movsar Evloev 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Alexander Volkanovski 0, Movsar Evloev 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Alexander Volkanovski 10, Movsar Evloev 10. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Alexander Volkanovski 17:33, Movsar Evloev 16:15. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Alexander Volkanovski 18, Movsar Evloev 10. Edge: Alexander Volkanovski.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 24 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 21 Mar 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Alexander Volkanovski

UFC record 15-3 · 18 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED82.5
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED85.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Movsar Evloev

UFC record 10-0 · 10 detailed UFC fights · Wrestling Heavy · Control Grappler

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING87.0
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED89.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab