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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Lone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan Temirov

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Flyweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Lone'er Kavanagh won by KO/TKO Punches · round 1, 4:28

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Lone'er KavanaghvsRamazan Temirov

Model pick: Ramazan Temirov (51.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 49 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Lone'er Kavanagh: 5 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Ramazan Temirov: 3 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickRamazan Temirov51.2%

Supporting the pick3

  • Striking defenseEdge: Ramazan Temirov
    Lone'er Kavanagh 53.5%, Ramazan Temirov 62.1%.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Ramazan Temirov
    Lone'er Kavanagh 82.6%, Ramazan Temirov 100.0%.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Ramazan Temirov
    Lone'er Kavanagh 19.25, Ramazan Temirov 16.20.

Working against the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Lone'er Kavanagh
    Lone'er Kavanagh 27.0 yrs, Ramazan Temirov 29.0 yrs.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Lone'er Kavanagh
    Lone'er Kavanagh 50.0%, Ramazan Temirov 41.2%.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Lone'er Kavanagh
    Lone'er Kavanagh 0.38, Ramazan Temirov 0.20.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Lone'er Kavanagh controls more: 0:36 per round to Ramazan Temirov’s 0:07.
  • Lone'er Kavanagh brings more wrestling volume: 0.81 takedown attempts per round to Ramazan Temirov’s 0.40.
  • Lone'er Kavanagh hunts more submissions: 0.12 attempts per round to Ramazan Temirov’s 0.00.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Lone'er Kavanagh 20.1, Ramazan Temirov 21.0. Edge: Ramazan Temirov.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Lone'er Kavanagh 19.2, Ramazan Temirov 16.2. Edge: Ramazan Temirov.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Lone'er Kavanagh +0.8, Ramazan Temirov +4.8. Edge: Ramazan Temirov.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Lone'er Kavanagh 50.0%, Ramazan Temirov 41.2%. Edge: Lone'er Kavanagh.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Lone'er Kavanagh 53.5%, Ramazan Temirov 62.2%. Edge: Ramazan Temirov.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Lone'er Kavanagh 0.06, Ramazan Temirov 1.00. Edge: Ramazan Temirov.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Lone'er Kavanagh 0.81, Ramazan Temirov 0.40. Edge: Lone'er Kavanagh.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Lone'er Kavanagh 0.38, Ramazan Temirov 0.20. Edge: Lone'er Kavanagh.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Lone'er Kavanagh 46.2%, Ramazan Temirov 50.0%. Edge: Ramazan Temirov.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Lone'er Kavanagh 82.6%, Ramazan Temirov 100.0%. Edge: Ramazan Temirov.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Lone'er Kavanagh 0:36, Ramazan Temirov 0:07. Edge: Lone'er Kavanagh.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Lone'er Kavanagh 0.12, Ramazan Temirov 0.00. Edge: Lone'er Kavanagh.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Lone'er Kavanagh 0.0%, Ramazan Temirov 66.7%. Edge: Ramazan Temirov.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Lone'er Kavanagh 0, Ramazan Temirov 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Lone'er Kavanagh 0, Ramazan Temirov 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Lone'er Kavanagh 3, Ramazan Temirov 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Lone'er Kavanagh 15:49, Ramazan Temirov 9:40. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Lone'er Kavanagh 5, Ramazan Temirov 3. Edge: Lone'er Kavanagh.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 24 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Lone'er Kavanagh

UFC record 3-2 · 5 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING81.2
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING67.5

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Ramazan Temirov

UFC record 3-0 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.9
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab