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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Lightweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Grant Dawson won by U-DEC · round 3, 5:00

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Grant DawsonvsNurullo Aliev

Model pick: Nurullo Aliev (66.6%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 33 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Grant Dawson: 15 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Nurullo Aliev: 4 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickNurullo Aliev66.6%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Nurullo Aliev
    Grant Dawson 32.0 yrs, Nurullo Aliev 25.0 yrs.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Nurullo Aliev
    Grant Dawson 44.8%, Nurullo Aliev 55.8%.
  • Prior UFC win rateEdge: Nurullo Aliev
    Grant Dawson 80.0%, Nurullo Aliev 100.0%.

Working against the pick3

  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Grant Dawson
    Grant Dawson 13.89, Nurullo Aliev 9.83.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Grant Dawson
    Grant Dawson 51.2%, Nurullo Aliev 41.5%.
  • Submission attempts per roundEdge: Grant Dawson
    Grant Dawson 0.37, Nurullo Aliev 0.17.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Grant Dawson scores more knockdowns: 0.03 per round to Nurullo Aliev’s 0.00.
  • Nurullo Aliev completes more of their takedown attempts: 58.3% to Grant Dawson’s 39.1%.
  • Grant Dawson lands 13.9 significant strikes per round to Nurullo Aliev’s 9.8.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Grant Dawson 13.9, Nurullo Aliev 9.8. Edge: Grant Dawson.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Grant Dawson 9.8, Nurullo Aliev 8.3. Edge: Nurullo Aliev.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Grant Dawson +4.1, Nurullo Aliev +1.5. Edge: Grant Dawson.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Grant Dawson 51.2%, Nurullo Aliev 41.5%. Edge: Grant Dawson.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Grant Dawson 44.8%, Nurullo Aliev 55.8%. Edge: Nurullo Aliev.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Grant Dawson 0.03, Nurullo Aliev 0.00. Edge: Grant Dawson.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Grant Dawson 2.76, Nurullo Aliev 2.00. Edge: Grant Dawson.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Grant Dawson 1.08, Nurullo Aliev 1.17. Edge: Nurullo Aliev.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Grant Dawson 39.1%, Nurullo Aliev 58.3%. Edge: Nurullo Aliev.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Grant Dawson 70.0%, Nurullo Aliev 80.0%. Edge: Nurullo Aliev.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Grant Dawson 2:54, Nurullo Aliev 2:56. Edge: Nurullo Aliev.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Grant Dawson 0.37, Nurullo Aliev 0.17. Edge: Grant Dawson.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Grant Dawson 58.3%, Nurullo Aliev 0.0%. Edge: Grant Dawson.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Grant Dawson 2, Nurullo Aliev 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Grant Dawson 5, Nurullo Aliev 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Grant Dawson 5, Nurullo Aliev 4. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Grant Dawson 11:23, Nurullo Aliev 15:00. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Grant Dawson 15, Nurullo Aliev 4. Edge: Grant Dawson.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 24 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Grant Dawson

UFC record 12-2-1 · 15 detailed UFC fights · Control Grappler · Wrestling Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING80.4
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED74.3

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Nurullo Aliev

UFC record 4-0 · 4 detailed UFC fights · Control Grappler · Wrestling Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED81.6
CardioEvidence: LIMITED88.1

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab