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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili

UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev · Sat 24 Oct 2026 · Bantamweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Petr Yan won by U-DEC · round 5, 5:00

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Petr YanvsMerab Dvalishvili

Model pick: Merab Dvalishvili (50.6%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 49 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Petr Yan: 16 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Merab Dvalishvili: 17 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickMerab Dvalishvili50.6%

Supporting the pick3

  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Merab Dvalishvili
    Petr Yan 0.55, Merab Dvalishvili 1.98.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Merab Dvalishvili
    Petr Yan 20.64, Merab Dvalishvili 13.97.
  • Control seconds per roundEdge: Merab Dvalishvili
    Petr Yan 0:44, Merab Dvalishvili 1:47.

Working against the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Petr Yan
    Petr Yan 33.0 yrs, Merab Dvalishvili 35.0 yrs.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Petr Yan
    Petr Yan 54.9%, Merab Dvalishvili 41.6%.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Petr Yan
    Petr Yan 59.6%, Merab Dvalishvili 54.0%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Merab Dvalishvili brings more wrestling volume: 5.63 takedown attempts per round to Petr Yan’s 1.12.
  • Merab Dvalishvili has more takedown production: 1.98 takedowns landed per round to Petr Yan’s 0.55.
  • Merab Dvalishvili controls more: 1:47 per round to Petr Yan’s 0:44.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Petr Yan 25.1, Merab Dvalishvili 22.0. Edge: Petr Yan.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Petr Yan 20.6, Merab Dvalishvili 14.0. Edge: Merab Dvalishvili.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Petr Yan +4.5, Merab Dvalishvili +8.1. Edge: Merab Dvalishvili.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Petr Yan 54.9%, Merab Dvalishvili 41.6%. Edge: Petr Yan.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Petr Yan 59.6%, Merab Dvalishvili 54.0%. Edge: Petr Yan.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Petr Yan 0.17, Merab Dvalishvili 0.02. Edge: Petr Yan.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Petr Yan 1.12, Merab Dvalishvili 5.63. Edge: Merab Dvalishvili.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Petr Yan 0.55, Merab Dvalishvili 1.98. Edge: Merab Dvalishvili.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Petr Yan 49.2%, Merab Dvalishvili 35.2%. Edge: Petr Yan.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Petr Yan 86.4%, Merab Dvalishvili 76.0%. Edge: Petr Yan.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Petr Yan 0:44, Merab Dvalishvili 1:47. Edge: Merab Dvalishvili.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Petr Yan 0.03, Merab Dvalishvili 0.12. Edge: Merab Dvalishvili.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Petr Yan 33.3%, Merab Dvalishvili 14.3%. Edge: Petr Yan.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Petr Yan 4, Merab Dvalishvili 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Petr Yan 0, Merab Dvalishvili 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Petr Yan 8, Merab Dvalishvili 12. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Petr Yan 18:50, Merab Dvalishvili 18:09. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Petr Yan 16, Merab Dvalishvili 17. Edge: Merab Dvalishvili.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 24 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 6 Dec 2025. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Petr Yan

UFC record 12-4 · 16 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker · Power Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED88.8
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED87.7

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Merab Dvalishvili

UFC record 14-3 · 17 detailed UFC fights · Wrestling Heavy · Control Grappler

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED88.7
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED70.0

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab