Model pick: Kayla Harrison (73.8%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 26 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Kayla Harrison: 3 prior detailed UFC fights
Amanda Nunes: 18 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickKayla Harrison73.8%
Kayla HarrisonAmanda Nunes
+Supporting the pick3
Control production against prior oppositionEdge: Kayla Harrison
Kayla Harrison 108.60, Amanda Nunes -10.63.
108.60-10.63
Control production compared with opponents’ normal allowance.
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Kayla Harrison
Kayla Harrison 10.79, Amanda Nunes 5.19.
10.795.19
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
AgeEdge: Kayla Harrison
Kayla Harrison 36.4 yrs, Amanda Nunes 38.5 yrs.
36.4 yrs38.5 yrs
−Working against the pick3
Longest win streakEdge: Amanda Nunes
Kayla Harrison 3, Amanda Nunes 12.
312
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Amanda Nunes
Kayla Harrison 4.66, Amanda Nunes 6.19.
4.666.19
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
Distance-strike shareEdge: Amanda Nunes
Kayla Harrison 29.4%, Amanda Nunes 68.9%.
29.4%68.9%
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance48%
KO/TKO27%
Submission25%
Decision48%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Kayla Harrison
Amanda Nunes
KO/TKO
14%
11%
Submission
24%
3%
Decision
36%
13%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Kayla HarrisonAmanda Nunes
Biggest statistical gaps
Kayla Harrison absorbs fewer strikes: 5.0 per round to Amanda Nunes’s 10.6.
Amanda Nunes scores more knockdowns: 0.17 per round to Kayla Harrison’s 0.00.
Kayla Harrison controls more: 2:41 per round to Amanda Nunes’s 1:29.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Kayla Harrison 19.4, Amanda Nunes 19.7. Edge: Amanda Nunes.
19.419.7
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Kayla Harrison 5.0, Amanda Nunes 10.6. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
5.010.6
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Kayla Harrison +14.4, Amanda Nunes +9.1. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
+14.4+9.1
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Kayla Harrison 62.1%, Amanda Nunes 52.0%. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
62.1%52.0%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Kayla Harrison 66.0%, Amanda Nunes 59.3%. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
66.0%59.3%
Knockdownsper round
Kayla Harrison 0.00, Amanda Nunes 0.17. Edge: Amanda Nunes.
0.000.17
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Kayla Harrison 2.29, Amanda Nunes 1.43. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
2.291.43
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Kayla Harrison 0.86, Amanda Nunes 0.81. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
0.860.81
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Kayla Harrison 37.5%, Amanda Nunes 56.7%. Edge: Amanda Nunes.
37.5%56.7%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Kayla Harrison 100.0%, Amanda Nunes 81.2%. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
100.0%81.2%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Kayla Harrison 2:41, Amanda Nunes 1:29. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
2:411:29
Submission attemptsper round
Kayla Harrison 0.29, Amanda Nunes 0.21. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
0.290.21
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Kayla Harrison 66.7%, Amanda Nunes 62.5%. Edge: Kayla Harrison.
66.7%62.5%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Kayla Harrison 0, Amanda Nunes 7. Style difference, no edge.
07
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Kayla Harrison 2, Amanda Nunes 3. Style difference, no edge.
23
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Kayla Harrison 1, Amanda Nunes 6. Style difference, no edge.
16
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Kayla Harrison 12:28, Amanda Nunes 11:54. Style difference, no edge.
12:2811:54
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Kayla Harrison 3, Amanda Nunes 18. Edge: Amanda Nunes.
318
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 14 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 7 Jun 2025. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Kayla Harrison
UFC record 3-0 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Defensive Striker · Ground Heavy
Ratings
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)82
Power67
Striking defense85
Takedown defense85
WrestlingProvisional measure79
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (3 detailed fights; as of Sat 7 Jun 2025). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: LIMITED69.2
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 16-2 · 18 detailed UFC fights · Wrestling Heavy · Ground Heavy
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)87
Power88
Striking defense85
Takedown defense86
WrestlingProvisional measure90
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (18 detailed fights; as of Sat 10 Jun 2023). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING88.8
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING59.7
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
