Model pick: Melquizael Costa (66.6%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 33 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Jared Gordon: 18 prior detailed UFC fights
Melquizael Costa: 10 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickMelquizael Costa66.6%
Jared GordonMelquizael Costa
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Melquizael Costa
Jared Gordon 38.2 yrs, Melquizael Costa 30.2 yrs.
38.2 yrs30.2 yrs
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Melquizael Costa
Jared Gordon -4.06, Melquizael Costa 4.06.
-4.064.06
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Prior UFC win rateEdge: Melquizael Costa
Jared Gordon 50.0%, Melquizael Costa 70.0%.
50.0%70.0%
−Working against the pick3
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Jared Gordon
Jared Gordon 8.02, Melquizael Costa 1.46.
8.021.46
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
Striking defenseEdge: Jared Gordon
Jared Gordon 55.5%, Melquizael Costa 50.4%.
55.5%50.4%
Striking accuracyEdge: Jared Gordon
Jared Gordon 53.7%, Melquizael Costa 47.0%.
53.7%47.0%
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance55%
KO/TKO29%
Submission17%
Decision55%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Jared Gordon
Melquizael Costa
KO/TKO
11%
13%
Submission
4%
17%
Decision
18%
36%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Jared GordonMelquizael Costa
Biggest statistical gaps
Jared Gordon controls more: 1:33 per round to Melquizael Costa’s 0:45.
Melquizael Costa hunts more submissions: 0.25 attempts per round to Jared Gordon’s 0.00.
Jared Gordon lands 25.6 significant strikes per round to Melquizael Costa’s 19.2.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Jared Gordon 25.6, Melquizael Costa 19.2. Edge: Jared Gordon.
25.619.2
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Jared Gordon 18.9, Melquizael Costa 14.3. Edge: Melquizael Costa.
18.914.3
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Jared Gordon +6.7, Melquizael Costa +5.0. Edge: Jared Gordon.
+6.7+5.0
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Jared Gordon 53.7%, Melquizael Costa 47.0%. Edge: Jared Gordon.
53.7%47.0%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Jared Gordon 55.5%, Melquizael Costa 50.4%. Edge: Jared Gordon.
55.5%50.4%
Knockdownsper round
Jared Gordon 0.05, Melquizael Costa 0.08. Edge: Melquizael Costa.
0.050.08
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Jared Gordon 1.68, Melquizael Costa 1.29. Edge: Jared Gordon.
1.681.29
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Jared Gordon 0.59, Melquizael Costa 0.46. Edge: Jared Gordon.
0.590.46
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Jared Gordon 34.8%, Melquizael Costa 35.5%. Edge: Melquizael Costa.
34.8%35.5%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Jared Gordon 60.5%, Melquizael Costa 50.9%. Edge: Jared Gordon.
60.5%50.9%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Jared Gordon 1:33, Melquizael Costa 0:45. Edge: Jared Gordon.
1:330:45
Submission attemptsper round
Jared Gordon 0.00, Melquizael Costa 0.25. Edge: Melquizael Costa.
0.000.25
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Jared Gordon 33.3%, Melquizael Costa 57.1%. Edge: Melquizael Costa.
33.3%57.1%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Jared Gordon 3, Melquizael Costa 2. Style difference, no edge.
32
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Jared Gordon 0, Melquizael Costa 2. Style difference, no edge.
02
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Jared Gordon 6, Melquizael Costa 3. Style difference, no edge.
63
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Jared Gordon 10:32, Melquizael Costa 10:57. Style difference, no edge.
10:3210:57
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Jared Gordon 18, Melquizael Costa 10. Edge: Jared Gordon.
1810
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 14 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 16 May 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Jared Gordon
UFC record 9-8 · 18 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker · Control Grappler
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)88
Power73
Striking defense69
Takedown defense69
WrestlingProvisional measure80
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (18 detailed fights; as of Sat 9 May 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED81.0
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED79.1
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (10 detailed fights; as of Sat 16 May 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING80.3
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING78.4
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
