Model pick: Uros Medic (61.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 39 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Uros Medic: 11 prior detailed UFC fights
Kevin Holland: 29 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickUros Medic61.2%
Uros MedicKevin Holland
+Supporting the pick3
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Uros Medic
Uros Medic 10.64, Kevin Holland 3.93.
10.643.93
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Prior UFC win rateEdge: Uros Medic
Uros Medic 72.7%, Kevin Holland 55.2%.
72.7%55.2%
Striking defenseEdge: Uros Medic
Uros Medic 55.8%, Kevin Holland 50.0%.
55.8%50.0%
−Working against the pick3
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Kevin Holland
Uros Medic -4.32, Kevin Holland 2.82.
-4.322.82
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
ReachEdge: Kevin Holland
Uros Medic 180 cm, Kevin Holland 206 cm.
180 cm206 cm
Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Kevin Holland
Uros Medic 0.07, Kevin Holland 0.24.
0.070.24
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance36%
KO/TKO49%
Submission15%
Decision36%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Uros Medic
Kevin Holland
KO/TKO
36%
12%
Submission
3%
13%
Decision
22%
14%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Uros MedicKevin Holland
Biggest statistical gaps
Kevin Holland controls more: 0:35 per round to Uros Medic’s 0:06.
Kevin Holland brings more wrestling volume: 0.61 takedown attempts per round to Uros Medic’s 0.13.
Kevin Holland has more takedown production: 0.24 takedowns landed per round to Uros Medic’s 0.07.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Uros Medic 14.9, Kevin Holland 18.4. Edge: Kevin Holland.
14.918.4
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Uros Medic 9.9, Kevin Holland 14.5. Edge: Uros Medic.
9.914.5
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Uros Medic +5.0, Kevin Holland +3.9. Edge: Uros Medic.
+5.0+3.9
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Uros Medic 58.2%, Kevin Holland 50.2%. Edge: Uros Medic.
58.2%50.2%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Uros Medic 55.8%, Kevin Holland 50.0%. Edge: Uros Medic.
55.8%50.0%
Knockdownsper round
Uros Medic 0.60, Kevin Holland 0.10. Edge: Uros Medic.
0.600.10
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Uros Medic 0.13, Kevin Holland 0.61. Edge: Kevin Holland.
0.130.61
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Uros Medic 0.07, Kevin Holland 0.24. Edge: Kevin Holland.
0.070.24
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Uros Medic 50.0%, Kevin Holland 39.5%. Edge: Uros Medic.
50.0%39.5%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Uros Medic 55.6%, Kevin Holland 57.8%. Edge: Kevin Holland.
55.6%57.8%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Uros Medic 0:06, Kevin Holland 0:35. Edge: Kevin Holland.
0:060:35
Submission attemptsper round
Uros Medic 0.00, Kevin Holland 0.19. Edge: Kevin Holland.
0.000.19
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Uros Medic 100.0%, Kevin Holland 68.8%. Edge: Uros Medic.
100.0%68.8%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Uros Medic 8, Kevin Holland 5. Style difference, no edge.
85
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Uros Medic 0, Kevin Holland 6. Style difference, no edge.
06
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Uros Medic 0, Kevin Holland 5. Style difference, no edge.
05
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Uros Medic 3:29, Kevin Holland 10:41. Style difference, no edge.
3:2910:41
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Uros Medic 11, Kevin Holland 29. Edge: Kevin Holland.
1129
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 14 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 1 Aug 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Uros Medic
UFC record 8-3 · 11 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)82
Power92
Striking defense82
Takedown defense67
WrestlingProvisional measure67
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (11 detailed fights; as of Sat 1 Aug 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED76.9
CardioEvidence: LIMITED65.1
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (29 detailed fights; as of Sat 11 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED87.5
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED65.7
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
