Model pick: Charles Radtke (73.6%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 26 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Stephen Thompson: 22 prior detailed UFC fights
Charles Radtke: 7 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickCharles Radtke73.6%
Stephen ThompsonCharles Radtke
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Charles Radtke
Stephen Thompson 43.8 yrs, Charles Radtke 36.4 yrs.
43.8 yrs36.4 yrs
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Charles Radtke
Stephen Thompson 3.65, Charles Radtke 11.07.
3.6511.07
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Striking accuracyEdge: Charles Radtke
Stephen Thompson 46.0%, Charles Radtke 53.9%.
46.0%53.9%
−Working against the pick3
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Stephen Thompson
Stephen Thompson 6.47, Charles Radtke -10.20.
6.47-10.20
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Stephen Thompson
Stephen Thompson 19.59, Charles Radtke 10.79.
19.5910.79
Ground-strike shareEdge: Stephen Thompson
Stephen Thompson 3.6%, Charles Radtke 25.2%.
3.6%25.2%
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance55%
KO/TKO38%
Submission7%
Decision55%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Stephen Thompson
Charles Radtke
KO/TKO
11%
24%
Submission
1%
10%
Decision
15%
40%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Stephen ThompsonCharles Radtke
Biggest statistical gaps
Charles Radtke controls more: 2:13 per round to Stephen Thompson’s 0:18.
Charles Radtke has more takedown production: 0.57 takedowns landed per round to Stephen Thompson’s 0.08.
Charles Radtke brings more wrestling volume: 1.29 takedown attempts per round to Stephen Thompson’s 0.21.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Stephen Thompson 19.6, Charles Radtke 10.8. Edge: Stephen Thompson.
19.610.8
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Stephen Thompson 14.5, Charles Radtke 10.6. Edge: Charles Radtke.
14.510.6
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Stephen Thompson +5.1, Charles Radtke +0.2. Edge: Stephen Thompson.
+5.1+0.2
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Stephen Thompson 46.0%, Charles Radtke 53.9%. Edge: Charles Radtke.
46.0%53.9%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Stephen Thompson 54.9%, Charles Radtke 54.7%. Edge: Stephen Thompson.
54.9%54.7%
Knockdownsper round
Stephen Thompson 0.15, Charles Radtke 0.14. Edge: Stephen Thompson.
0.150.14
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Stephen Thompson 0.21, Charles Radtke 1.29. Edge: Charles Radtke.
0.211.29
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Stephen Thompson 0.08, Charles Radtke 0.57. Edge: Charles Radtke.
0.080.57
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Stephen Thompson 35.7%, Charles Radtke 44.4%. Edge: Charles Radtke.
35.7%44.4%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Stephen Thompson 63.3%, Charles Radtke 100.0%. Edge: Charles Radtke.
63.3%100.0%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Stephen Thompson 0:18, Charles Radtke 2:13. Edge: Charles Radtke.
0:182:13
Submission attemptsper round
Stephen Thompson 0.00, Charles Radtke 0.14. Edge: Charles Radtke.
0.000.14
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Stephen Thompson 50.0%, Charles Radtke 60.0%. Edge: Charles Radtke.
50.0%60.0%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Stephen Thompson 6, Charles Radtke 2. Style difference, no edge.
62
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Stephen Thompson 0, Charles Radtke 1. Style difference, no edge.
01
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Stephen Thompson 6, Charles Radtke 2. Style difference, no edge.
62
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Stephen Thompson 15:01, Charles Radtke 7:33. Style difference, no edge.
15:017:33
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Stephen Thompson 22, Charles Radtke 7. Edge: Stephen Thompson.
227
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 14 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 11 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (22 detailed fights; as of Sat 12 Jul 2025). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED79.8
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED95.8
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 5-2 · 7 detailed UFC fights · Control Grappler · Ground Heavy
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)74
Power79
Striking defense77
Takedown defense90
WrestlingProvisional measure82
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (7 detailed fights; as of Sat 11 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED79.1
CardioEvidence: LIMITED73.9
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
