Model pick: Donte Johnson (78.7%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 21 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Donte Johnson: 3 prior detailed UFC fights
Cesar Almeida: 6 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickDonte Johnson78.7%
Donte JohnsonCesar Almeida
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson 27.8 yrs, Cesar Almeida 38.6 yrs.
27.8 yrs38.6 yrs
Striking defenseEdge: Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson 63.2%, Cesar Almeida 43.2%.
63.2%43.2%
Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson 0.50, Cesar Almeida 0.08.
0.500.08
−Working against the pick3
Striking accuracyEdge: Cesar Almeida
Donte Johnson 42.6%, Cesar Almeida 60.0%.
42.6%60.0%
Takedown accuracyEdge: Cesar Almeida
Donte Johnson 100.0%, Cesar Almeida 33.3%.
100.0%33.3%
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Cesar Almeida
Donte Johnson -1.64, Cesar Almeida 10.14.
-1.6410.14
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance37%
KO/TKO39%
Submission24%
Decision37%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Donte Johnson
Cesar Almeida
KO/TKO
34%
9%
Submission
16%
4%
Decision
29%
8%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Donte JohnsonCesar Almeida
Biggest statistical gaps
Donte Johnson has more takedown production: 0.50 takedowns landed per round to Cesar Almeida’s 0.08.
Donte Johnson controls more: 1:06 per round to Cesar Almeida’s 0:16.
Donte Johnson completes more of their takedown attempts: 100.0% to Cesar Almeida’s 33.3%.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Donte Johnson 11.0, Cesar Almeida 16.4. Edge: Cesar Almeida.
11.016.4
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Donte Johnson 7.0, Cesar Almeida 10.9. Edge: Donte Johnson.
7.010.9
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Donte Johnson +4.0, Cesar Almeida +5.5. Edge: Cesar Almeida.
+4.0+5.5
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Donte Johnson 42.6%, Cesar Almeida 60.0%. Edge: Cesar Almeida.
42.6%60.0%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Donte Johnson 63.2%, Cesar Almeida 43.2%. Edge: Donte Johnson.
63.2%43.2%
Knockdownsper round
Donte Johnson 0.17, Cesar Almeida 0.08. Edge: Donte Johnson.
0.170.08
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Donte Johnson 0.50, Cesar Almeida 0.23. Edge: Donte Johnson.
0.500.23
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Donte Johnson 0.50, Cesar Almeida 0.08. Edge: Donte Johnson.
0.500.08
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Donte Johnson 100.0%, Cesar Almeida 33.3%. Edge: Donte Johnson.
100.0%33.3%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Donte Johnson 76.9%, Cesar Almeida 48.5%. Edge: Donte Johnson.
76.9%48.5%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Donte Johnson 1:06, Cesar Almeida 0:16. Edge: Donte Johnson.
1:060:16
Submission attemptsper round
Donte Johnson 0.17, Cesar Almeida 0.08. Edge: Donte Johnson.
0.170.08
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Donte Johnson 66.7%, Cesar Almeida 66.7%.
66.7%66.7%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Donte Johnson 1, Cesar Almeida 2. Style difference, no edge.
12
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Donte Johnson 1, Cesar Almeida 0. Style difference, no edge.
10
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Donte Johnson 1, Cesar Almeida 1. Style difference, no edge.
11
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Donte Johnson 8:19, Cesar Almeida 9:45. Style difference, no edge.
8:199:45
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Donte Johnson 3, Cesar Almeida 6. Edge: Cesar Almeida.
36
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 14 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 15 Aug 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Donte Johnson
UFC record 3-0 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Defensive Striker · Power Striker
Ratings
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)71
Power80
Striking defense84
Takedown defense80
WrestlingProvisional measure80
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (3 detailed fights; as of Sat 15 Aug 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: LIMITED65.7
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (6 detailed fights; as of Sat 11 Jul 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED77.9
CardioEvidence: LIMITED83.0
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
