Model pick: Bia Mesquita (64.5%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 36 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Macy Chiasson: 14 prior detailed UFC fights
Bia Mesquita: 3 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickBia Mesquita64.5%
Macy ChiassonBia Mesquita
+Supporting the pick3
Striking defenseEdge: Bia Mesquita
Macy Chiasson 44.9%, Bia Mesquita 71.4%.
44.9%71.4%
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Bia Mesquita
Macy Chiasson 5.15, Bia Mesquita 12.46.
5.1512.46
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Striking accuracyEdge: Bia Mesquita
Macy Chiasson 46.1%, Bia Mesquita 57.0%.
46.1%57.0%
−Working against the pick3
Takedown defenseEdge: Macy Chiasson
Macy Chiasson 62.5%, Bia Mesquita 0.0%.
62.5%0.0%
AgeEdge: Macy Chiasson
Macy Chiasson 35.3 yrs, Bia Mesquita 35.6 yrs.
35.3 yrs35.6 yrs
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Macy Chiasson
Macy Chiasson -2.92, Bia Mesquita -6.92.
-2.92-6.92
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance44%
KO/TKO16%
Submission40%
Decision44%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Macy Chiasson
Bia Mesquita
KO/TKO
10%
8%
Submission
9%
28%
Decision
16%
28%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Macy ChiassonBia Mesquita
Biggest statistical gaps
Macy Chiasson has the stronger takedown defense: 62.5% to Bia Mesquita’s 0.0%.
Bia Mesquita absorbs fewer strikes: 4.0 per round to Macy Chiasson’s 12.4.
Bia Mesquita completes more of their takedown attempts: 75.0% to Macy Chiasson’s 35.9%.
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 14 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 20 Jun 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Macy Chiasson
UFC record 8-6 · 14 detailed UFC fights · Clinch Heavy · Control Grappler
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)72
Power74
Striking defense68
Takedown defense72
WrestlingProvisional measure76
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (14 detailed fights; as of Sat 28 Feb 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING84.2
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED61.1
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 3-0 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Ground Heavy · Defensive Striker
Ratings
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)79
Power67
Striking defense85
Takedown defense64
WrestlingProvisional measure83
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (3 detailed fights; as of Sat 20 Jun 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
