UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit · Sat 14 Nov 2026 · Middleweight
Official forecastLocked 27 Oct 2026, 04:21 UTCRemoved · not graded
This bout was removed from the card after predictions were frozen. It is not on the current card. The frozen forecast below is preserved exactly as locked and will not be graded. See the current card.
Model pick: Baisangur Susurkaev (62.5%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 38 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Donte Johnson: 3 prior detailed UFC fights
Baisangur Susurkaev: 3 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickBaisangur Susurkaev62.5%
Donte JohnsonBaisangur Susurkaev
+Supporting the pick3
Striking accuracyEdge: Baisangur Susurkaev
Donte Johnson 42.6%, Baisangur Susurkaev 54.0%.
42.6%54.0%
AgeEdge: Baisangur Susurkaev
Donte Johnson 27.8 yrs, Baisangur Susurkaev 25.8 yrs.
27.8 yrs25.8 yrs
Takedown accuracyEdge: Baisangur Susurkaev
Donte Johnson 100.0%, Baisangur Susurkaev 26.3%.
100.0%26.3%
−Working against the pick3
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson 3.86, Baisangur Susurkaev 0.43.
3.860.43
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson 7.00, Baisangur Susurkaev 19.12.
7.0019.12
Leg-strike shareEdge: Donte Johnson
Donte Johnson 12.1%, Baisangur Susurkaev 17.3%.
12.1%17.3%
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Method and finish estimates are unavailable because the scheduled fight length has not been verified pre-event.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Donte JohnsonBaisangur Susurkaev
Biggest statistical gaps
Baisangur Susurkaev brings more wrestling volume: 2.38 takedown attempts per round to Donte Johnson’s 0.50.
Donte Johnson completes more of their takedown attempts: 100.0% to Baisangur Susurkaev’s 26.3%.
Donte Johnson absorbs fewer strikes: 7.0 per round to Baisangur Susurkaev’s 19.1.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Donte Johnson 11.0, Baisangur Susurkaev 24.5. Edge: Baisangur Susurkaev.
11.024.5
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Donte Johnson 7.0, Baisangur Susurkaev 19.1. Edge: Donte Johnson.
7.019.1
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Donte Johnson +4.0, Baisangur Susurkaev +5.4. Edge: Baisangur Susurkaev.
+4.0+5.4
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Donte Johnson 42.6%, Baisangur Susurkaev 54.0%. Edge: Baisangur Susurkaev.
42.6%54.0%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Donte Johnson 63.2%, Baisangur Susurkaev 59.1%. Edge: Donte Johnson.
63.2%59.1%
Knockdownsper round
Donte Johnson 0.17, Baisangur Susurkaev 0.12. Edge: Donte Johnson.
0.170.12
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Donte Johnson 0.50, Baisangur Susurkaev 2.38. Edge: Baisangur Susurkaev.
0.502.38
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Donte Johnson 0.50, Baisangur Susurkaev 0.62. Edge: Baisangur Susurkaev.
0.500.62
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Donte Johnson 100.0%, Baisangur Susurkaev 26.3%. Edge: Donte Johnson.
100.0%26.3%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Donte Johnson 76.9%, Baisangur Susurkaev 100.0%. Edge: Baisangur Susurkaev.
76.9%100.0%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Donte Johnson 1:06, Baisangur Susurkaev 1:06.
1:061:06
Submission attemptsper round
Donte Johnson 0.17, Baisangur Susurkaev 0.25. Edge: Baisangur Susurkaev.
0.170.25
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Donte Johnson 66.7%, Baisangur Susurkaev 100.0%. Edge: Baisangur Susurkaev.
66.7%100.0%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Donte Johnson 1, Baisangur Susurkaev 1. Style difference, no edge.
11
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Donte Johnson 1, Baisangur Susurkaev 2. Style difference, no edge.
12
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Donte Johnson 1, Baisangur Susurkaev 0. Style difference, no edge.
10
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Donte Johnson 8:19, Baisangur Susurkaev 12:55. Style difference, no edge.
8:1912:55
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Donte Johnson 3, Baisangur Susurkaev 3.
33
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 14 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 15 Aug 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Donte Johnson
UFC record 3-0 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Defensive Striker · Power Striker
Ratings
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)71
Power80
Striking defense84
Takedown defense80
WrestlingProvisional measure80
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (3 detailed fights; as of Sat 15 Aug 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: LIMITED65.7
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 3-0 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker · Wrestling Heavy
Ratings
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)83
Power79
Striking defense76
Takedown defense85
WrestlingProvisional measure75
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (3 detailed fights; as of Sat 9 May 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED81.2
CardioEvidence: LIMITED91.3
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
