UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker · Sat 7 Nov 2026 · Welterweight
Official forecastLocked 27 Oct 2026, 04:21 UTCRemoved · not graded
This bout was removed from the card after predictions were frozen. It is not on the current card. The frozen forecast below is preserved exactly as locked and will not be graded. See the current card.
Model pick: Gabriel Bonfim (61.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 39 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Gabriel Bonfim: 8 prior detailed UFC fights
Sean Brady: 11 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickGabriel Bonfim61.2%
Gabriel BonfimSean Brady
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim 29.2 yrs, Sean Brady 34.0 yrs.
29.2 yrs34.0 yrs
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim 8.83, Sean Brady 2.17.
8.832.17
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Striking defenseEdge: Gabriel Bonfim
Gabriel Bonfim 64.3%, Sean Brady 59.9%.
64.3%59.9%
−Working against the pick3
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Sean Brady
Gabriel Bonfim -1.37, Sean Brady 6.27.
-1.376.27
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Sean Brady
Gabriel Bonfim 0.74, Sean Brady 1.09.
0.741.09
Striking accuracyEdge: Sean Brady
Gabriel Bonfim 47.7%, Sean Brady 53.2%.
47.7%53.2%
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Method and finish estimates are unavailable because the scheduled fight length has not been verified pre-event.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Gabriel BonfimSean Brady
Biggest statistical gaps
Sean Brady controls more: 2:11 per round to Gabriel Bonfim’s 0:38.
Sean Brady brings more wrestling volume: 2.12 takedown attempts per round to Gabriel Bonfim’s 1.42.
Sean Brady has more takedown production: 1.09 takedowns landed per round to Gabriel Bonfim’s 0.74.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Gabriel Bonfim 20.5, Sean Brady 18.7. Edge: Gabriel Bonfim.
20.518.7
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Gabriel Bonfim 15.6, Sean Brady 12.7. Edge: Sean Brady.
15.612.7
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Gabriel Bonfim +4.9, Sean Brady +6.0. Edge: Sean Brady.
+4.9+6.0
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Gabriel Bonfim 47.7%, Sean Brady 53.2%. Edge: Sean Brady.
47.7%53.2%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Gabriel Bonfim 64.2%, Sean Brady 59.9%. Edge: Gabriel Bonfim.
64.2%59.9%
Knockdownsper round
Gabriel Bonfim 0.05, Sean Brady 0.03. Edge: Gabriel Bonfim.
0.050.03
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Gabriel Bonfim 1.42, Sean Brady 2.12. Edge: Sean Brady.
1.422.12
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Gabriel Bonfim 0.74, Sean Brady 1.09. Edge: Sean Brady.
0.741.09
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Gabriel Bonfim 51.8%, Sean Brady 51.5%. Edge: Gabriel Bonfim.
51.8%51.5%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Gabriel Bonfim 79.0%, Sean Brady 86.7%. Edge: Sean Brady.
79.0%86.7%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Gabriel Bonfim 0:38, Sean Brady 2:11. Edge: Sean Brady.
0:382:11
Submission attemptsper round
Gabriel Bonfim 0.26, Sean Brady 0.25. Edge: Gabriel Bonfim.
0.260.25
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Gabriel Bonfim 57.1%, Sean Brady 44.4%. Edge: Gabriel Bonfim.
57.1%44.4%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Gabriel Bonfim 1, Sean Brady 0. Style difference, no edge.
10
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Gabriel Bonfim 3, Sean Brady 4. Style difference, no edge.
34
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Gabriel Bonfim 3, Sean Brady 5. Style difference, no edge.
35
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Gabriel Bonfim 11:46, Sean Brady 13:11. Style difference, no edge.
11:4613:11
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Gabriel Bonfim 8, Sean Brady 11. Edge: Sean Brady.
811
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 7 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 6 Jun 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (8 detailed fights; as of Sat 6 Jun 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING81.4
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING79.5
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 9-2 · 11 detailed UFC fights · Control Grappler · Wrestling Heavy
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)85
Power63
Striking defense82
Takedown defense90
WrestlingProvisional measure88
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (11 detailed fights; as of Sat 9 May 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING84.0
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED62.2
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
