UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker · Sat 7 Nov 2026 · Featherweight
Experimental estimate onlyLocked 27 Oct 2026, 04:21 UTCMoved since lock
No official forecast: Lucas Brennan has fewer than 3 detailed UFC fights on record.
Limited-data estimate
Experimental. Limited-data estimate. Experimental and not part of Fight Forecast's official record.
59.6%40.4%
Evidence: Very limited evidence · 3 prior detailed UFC fights vs 1 prior detailed UFC fight. No model pick is published for limited-data bouts.
Method and distance
Method and finish estimates are unavailable because the scheduled fight length has not been verified pre-event.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Austin BashiLucas Brennan
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Austin Bashi 8.1, Lucas Brennan 3.0. Edge: Austin Bashi.
8.13.0
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Austin Bashi 11.3, Lucas Brennan 11.0. Edge: Lucas Brennan.
11.311.0
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Austin Bashi -3.1, Lucas Brennan -8.0. Edge: Austin Bashi.
-3.1-8.0
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Austin Bashi 39.6%, Lucas Brennan 25.0%. Edge: Austin Bashi.
39.6%25.0%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Austin Bashi 54.1%, Lucas Brennan 52.2%. Edge: Austin Bashi.
54.1%52.2%
Knockdownsper round
Austin Bashi 0.00, Lucas Brennan 0.00.
0.000.00
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Austin Bashi 4.71, Lucas Brennan 2.00. Edge: Austin Bashi.
4.712.00
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Austin Bashi 1.00, Lucas Brennan 0.00. Edge: Austin Bashi.
1.000.00
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Austin Bashi 21.2%, Lucas Brennan 0.0%. Edge: Austin Bashi.
21.2%0.0%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Austin Bashi 57.1%, Lucas Brennan 33.3%. Edge: Austin Bashi.
57.1%33.3%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Austin Bashi 1:41, Lucas Brennan 0:16. Edge: Austin Bashi.
1:410:16
Submission attemptsper round
Austin Bashi 0.29, Lucas Brennan 0.33. Edge: Lucas Brennan.
0.290.33
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Austin Bashi 100.0%, Lucas Brennan —.
100.0%—
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Austin Bashi 0, Lucas Brennan 0. Style difference, no edge.
00
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Austin Bashi 1, Lucas Brennan 0. Style difference, no edge.
10
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Austin Bashi 0, Lucas Brennan 0. Style difference, no edge.
00
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Austin Bashi 15:00, Lucas Brennan —. Style difference, no edge.
15:00—
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Austin Bashi 3, Lucas Brennan 1. Edge: Austin Bashi.
31
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 7 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 18 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Austin Bashi
UFC record 1-2 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Wrestling Heavy · Control Grappler
Ratings
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)67
Power66
Striking defense76
Takedown defense72
WrestlingProvisional measure77
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (3 detailed fights; as of Sat 18 Jul 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.3
CardioEvidence: LIMITED73.4
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)—
Power—
Striking defense—
Takedown defense—
WrestlingProvisional measure—
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (1 detailed fights; as of Sat 25 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
