Model pick: Seokhyeon Ko (73.8%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 26 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Seokhyeon Ko: 3 prior detailed UFC fights
Wellington Turman: 9 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickSeokhyeon Ko73.8%
Seokhyeon KoWellington Turman
+Supporting the pick3
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Seokhyeon Ko
Seokhyeon Ko 12.10, Wellington Turman -3.66.
12.10-3.66
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Striking defenseEdge: Seokhyeon Ko
Seokhyeon Ko 65.3%, Wellington Turman 45.2%.
65.3%45.2%
Control production against prior oppositionEdge: Seokhyeon Ko
Seokhyeon Ko 125.60, Wellington Turman 20.96.
125.6020.96
Control production compared with opponents’ normal allowance.
−Working against the pick3
AgeEdge: Wellington Turman
Seokhyeon Ko 33.1 yrs, Wellington Turman 30.3 yrs.
33.1 yrs30.3 yrs
Submission activity against prior oppositionEdge: Wellington Turman
Seokhyeon Ko 0.09, Wellington Turman 0.15.
0.090.15
Submission activity compared with opponents’ prior baseline.
Takedown accuracyEdge: Wellington Turman
Seokhyeon Ko 58.8%, Wellington Turman 20.8%.
58.8%20.8%
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance51%
KO/TKO22%
Submission27%
Decision51%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Seokhyeon Ko
Wellington Turman
KO/TKO
16%
4%
Submission
19%
9%
Decision
38%
13%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Seokhyeon KoWellington Turman
Biggest statistical gaps
Seokhyeon Ko completes more of their takedown attempts: 58.8% to Wellington Turman’s 20.8%.
Seokhyeon Ko absorbs fewer strikes: 7.3 per round to Wellington Turman’s 19.2.
Seokhyeon Ko has more takedown production: 1.11 takedowns landed per round to Wellington Turman’s 0.48.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Seokhyeon Ko 15.0, Wellington Turman 14.9. Edge: Seokhyeon Ko.
15.014.9
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Seokhyeon Ko 7.3, Wellington Turman 19.2. Edge: Seokhyeon Ko.
7.319.2
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Seokhyeon Ko +7.7, Wellington Turman -4.3. Edge: Seokhyeon Ko.
+7.7-4.3
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Seokhyeon Ko 49.8%, Wellington Turman 51.2%. Edge: Wellington Turman.
49.8%51.2%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Seokhyeon Ko 65.3%, Wellington Turman 45.2%. Edge: Seokhyeon Ko.
65.3%45.2%
Knockdownsper round
Seokhyeon Ko 0.00, Wellington Turman 0.00.
0.000.00
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Seokhyeon Ko 1.89, Wellington Turman 2.29. Edge: Wellington Turman.
1.892.29
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Seokhyeon Ko 1.11, Wellington Turman 0.48. Edge: Seokhyeon Ko.
1.110.48
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Seokhyeon Ko 58.8%, Wellington Turman 20.8%. Edge: Seokhyeon Ko.
58.8%20.8%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Seokhyeon Ko 50.0%, Wellington Turman 42.9%. Edge: Seokhyeon Ko.
50.0%42.9%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Seokhyeon Ko 2:48, Wellington Turman 1:20. Edge: Seokhyeon Ko.
2:481:20
Submission attemptsper round
Seokhyeon Ko 0.11, Wellington Turman 0.24. Edge: Wellington Turman.
0.110.24
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Seokhyeon Ko 0.0%, Wellington Turman 33.3%. Edge: Wellington Turman.
0.0%33.3%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Seokhyeon Ko 0, Wellington Turman 0. Style difference, no edge.
00
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Seokhyeon Ko 0, Wellington Turman 1. Style difference, no edge.
01
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Seokhyeon Ko 2, Wellington Turman 2. Style difference, no edge.
22
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Seokhyeon Ko 15:00, Wellington Turman 10:59. Style difference, no edge.
15:0010:59
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Seokhyeon Ko 3, Wellington Turman 9. Edge: Wellington Turman.
39
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 7 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 18 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Seokhyeon Ko
UFC record 2-1 · 3 detailed UFC fights · Control Grappler · Wrestling Heavy
Ratings
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)78
Power66
Striking defense84
Takedown defense69
WrestlingProvisional measure83
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (3 detailed fights; as of Sat 18 Jul 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED81.1
CardioEvidence: LIMITED70.1
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (9 detailed fights; as of Sat 2 Dec 2023). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING82.0
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING74.6
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
