Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Sat 17 Oct 2026 · Heavyweight
Official forecast
Result
✗ Forecast missedTanner Boser won by KO/TKO Punches · round 3, 4:26
Winner estimate
Model pick: Jhonata Diniz (53.4%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 47 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
- Tanner Boser: 11 prior detailed UFC fights
- Jhonata Diniz: 5 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fightModel pickJhonata Diniz53.4%
Supporting the pick3
- Prior UFC lossesEdge: Jhonata DinizTanner Boser 6, Jhonata Diniz 2.
- Prior UFC win rateEdge: Jhonata DinizTanner Boser 45.5%, Jhonata Diniz 60.0%.
- ReachEdge: Jhonata DinizTanner Boser 190 cm, Jhonata Diniz 201 cm.
Working against the pick3
- Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Tanner BoserTanner Boser 22.15, Jhonata Diniz 17.25.
- Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Tanner BoserTanner Boser 13.81, Jhonata Diniz 16.00.
- UFC experienceEdge: Tanner BoserTanner Boser 11, Jhonata Diniz 5.
Method and distance
Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.
Stat comparison
DescriptiveReason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Biggest statistical gaps
- Tanner Boser brings more wrestling volume: 0.04 takedown attempts per round to Jhonata Diniz’s 0.00.
- Tanner Boser controls more: 0:21 per round to Jhonata Diniz’s 0:06.
- Tanner Boser lands 22.2 significant strikes per round to Jhonata Diniz’s 17.2.
Striking
- Significant strikes landedper roundTanner Boser 22.2, Jhonata Diniz 17.2. Edge: Tanner Boser.
- Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is betterTanner Boser 13.8, Jhonata Diniz 16.0. Edge: Tanner Boser.
- Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per roundTanner Boser +8.3, Jhonata Diniz +1.2. Edge: Tanner Boser.
- Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landedTanner Boser 53.5%, Jhonata Diniz 58.8%. Edge: Jhonata Diniz.
- Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoidedTanner Boser 57.5%, Jhonata Diniz 58.4%. Edge: Jhonata Diniz.
- Knockdownsper roundTanner Boser 0.08, Jhonata Diniz 0.08. Edge: Jhonata Diniz.
Wrestling and grappling
- Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volumeTanner Boser 0.04, Jhonata Diniz 0.00. Edge: Tanner Boser.
- Takedowns landedper round · takedown productionTanner Boser 0.00, Jhonata Diniz 0.00.
- Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completedTanner Boser 0.0%, Jhonata Diniz —.
- Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stoppedTanner Boser 69.6%, Jhonata Diniz 69.2%. Edge: Tanner Boser.
- Control timeminutes:seconds per roundTanner Boser 0:21, Jhonata Diniz 0:06. Edge: Tanner Boser.
- Submission attemptsper roundTanner Boser 0.00, Jhonata Diniz 0.00.
Fight profile
- Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submissionTanner Boser 60.0%, Jhonata Diniz 33.3%. Edge: Tanner Boser.
- Wins by KO/TKOUFC winsTanner Boser 3, Jhonata Diniz 1. Style difference, no edge.
- Wins by submissionUFC winsTanner Boser 0, Jhonata Diniz 0. Style difference, no edge.
- Wins by decisionUFC winsTanner Boser 2, Jhonata Diniz 2. Style difference, no edge.
- Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)Tanner Boser 10:33, Jhonata Diniz 11:23. Style difference, no edge.
- Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbersTanner Boser 11, Jhonata Diniz 5. Edge: Tanner Boser.
The fighters
Tanner Boser
Ratings
Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scaleJhonata Diniz
Ratings
Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scalePost-fight review
Published- What happened
- Tanner Boser defeated Jhonata Diniz by KO/TKO via punches at 4:26 of Round 3. The model narrowly picked Diniz at 53.4%.
- What the model got right
- It correctly treated this as close rather than a high-confidence prediction. At only 53.4%, Diniz was barely above coin-flip territory, so the result itself was well within the uncertainty represented by the probability.
- What the model missed
- The frozen audit identified warning signals on Boser’s side involving significant strikes landed, significant strikes absorbed, and UFC experience. Those opposing factors were present, but the final Winner probability still narrowly favored Diniz. The stored finish diagnostic actually leaned 51.7% decision, so the late KO was also on the opposite side of that diagnostic lean.
- Takeaway
- This is less concerning than the 70%+ misses. A 53.4% pick losing is normal probabilistic behavior. The useful lesson is to preserve the distinction between low-confidence picks and strong forecasts rather than trying to “fix” every near-coin-flip loss.
Simulate in the Lab
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.