Skip to content
FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Sat 17 Oct 2026 · Lightweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Mandel Nallo won by KO/TKO Punches · round 2, 0:47

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Mandel NallovsNate Landwehr

Model pick: Mandel Nallo (52.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 48 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Mandel Nallo: 1 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data
  • Nate Landwehr: 11 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickMandel Nallo52.2%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Mandel Nallo
    Mandel Nallo 37.0 yrs, Nate Landwehr 38.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Mandel Nallo
    Mandel Nallo 19.00, Nate Landwehr 25.54.
  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Mandel Nallo
    Mandel Nallo 1, Nate Landwehr 6.

Working against the pick3

  • Striking defenseEdge: Nate Landwehr
    Mandel Nallo 32.1%, Nate Landwehr 51.2%.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Nate Landwehr
    Mandel Nallo 16.00, Nate Landwehr 23.79.
  • Submission attempts per roundEdge: Nate Landwehr
    Mandel Nallo 0.00, Nate Landwehr 0.21.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Mandel Nallo 16.0, Nate Landwehr 23.8. Edge: Nate Landwehr.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Mandel Nallo 19.0, Nate Landwehr 25.5. Edge: Mandel Nallo.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Mandel Nallo -3.0, Nate Landwehr -1.8. Edge: Nate Landwehr.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Mandel Nallo 51.6%, Nate Landwehr 45.8%. Edge: Mandel Nallo.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Mandel Nallo 32.1%, Nate Landwehr 51.2%. Edge: Nate Landwehr.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Mandel Nallo 1.00, Nate Landwehr 0.04. Edge: Mandel Nallo.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Mandel Nallo 0.00, Nate Landwehr 0.50. Edge: Nate Landwehr.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Mandel Nallo 0.00, Nate Landwehr 0.21. Edge: Nate Landwehr.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Mandel Nallo —, Nate Landwehr 41.7%.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Mandel Nallo —, Nate Landwehr 71.9%.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Mandel Nallo 0:10, Nate Landwehr 0:30. Edge: Nate Landwehr.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Mandel Nallo 0.00, Nate Landwehr 0.21. Edge: Nate Landwehr.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Mandel Nallo —, Nate Landwehr 60.0%.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Mandel Nallo 0, Nate Landwehr 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Mandel Nallo 0, Nate Landwehr 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Mandel Nallo 0, Nate Landwehr 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Mandel Nallo —, Nate Landwehr 10:01. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Mandel Nallo 1, Nate Landwehr 11. Edge: Nate Landwehr.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 17 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 18 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Mandel Nallo

UFC record 0-1 · 1 detailed UFC fights · Limited UFC Sample

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Nate Landwehr

UFC record 5-6 · 11 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED69.0
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING82.0

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab