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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Katlyn Cerminara

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Sat 17 Oct 2026 · Women's Flyweight

Official forecast

Result

Not scored (card changed)

Result details unavailable.

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Jamey-Lyn HorthvsKatlyn Cerminara

Model pick: Jamey-Lyn Horth (65.4%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 35 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Jamey-Lyn Horth: 7 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Katlyn Cerminara: 17 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickJamey-Lyn Horth65.4%

Supporting the pick3

  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Jamey-Lyn Horth
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 12.79, Katlyn Cerminara 22.04.
  • AgeEdge: Jamey-Lyn Horth
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 36.0 yrs, Katlyn Cerminara 37.0 yrs.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Jamey-Lyn Horth
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 47.6%, Katlyn Cerminara 34.9%.

Working against the pick2

  • Prior UFC win rateEdge: Katlyn Cerminara
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 57.1%, Katlyn Cerminara 64.7%.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Katlyn Cerminara
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 18.42, Katlyn Cerminara 22.53.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Jamey-Lyn Horth has more takedown production: 0.32 takedowns landed per round to Katlyn Cerminara’s 0.10.
  • Jamey-Lyn Horth completes more of their takedown attempts: 42.9% to Katlyn Cerminara’s 15.6%.
  • Katlyn Cerminara scores more knockdowns: 0.02 per round to Jamey-Lyn Horth’s 0.00.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 18.4, Katlyn Cerminara 22.5. Edge: Katlyn Cerminara.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 12.8, Katlyn Cerminara 22.0. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Jamey-Lyn Horth +5.6, Katlyn Cerminara +0.5. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 47.6%, Katlyn Cerminara 34.9%. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 63.9%, Katlyn Cerminara 62.3%. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 0.00, Katlyn Cerminara 0.02. Edge: Katlyn Cerminara.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 0.74, Katlyn Cerminara 0.65. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 0.32, Katlyn Cerminara 0.10. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 42.9%, Katlyn Cerminara 15.6%. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 80.6%, Katlyn Cerminara 50.0%. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 0:43, Katlyn Cerminara 0:23. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 0.05, Katlyn Cerminara 0.10. Edge: Katlyn Cerminara.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 25.0%, Katlyn Cerminara 0.0%. Edge: Jamey-Lyn Horth.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 1, Katlyn Cerminara 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 0, Katlyn Cerminara 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 3, Katlyn Cerminara 11. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 12:51, Katlyn Cerminara 14:07. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Jamey-Lyn Horth 7, Katlyn Cerminara 17. Edge: Katlyn Cerminara.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 17 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 18 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Jamey-Lyn Horth

UFC record 4-3 · 7 detailed UFC fights · Defensive Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING83.9
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING76.5

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Katlyn Cerminara

UFC record 11-6 · 17 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED88.2
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED75.0

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab