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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Sat 17 Oct 2026 · Women's Flyweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Jasmine Jasudavicius won by U-DEC · round 3, 5:00

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Erin BlanchfieldvsJasmine Jasudavicius

Model pick: Erin Blanchfield (72.7%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 27 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Erin Blanchfield: 9 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Jasmine Jasudavicius: 12 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickErin Blanchfield72.7%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Erin Blanchfield
    Erin Blanchfield 27.0 yrs, Jasmine Jasudavicius 37.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Erin Blanchfield
    Erin Blanchfield 24.73, Jasmine Jasudavicius 15.78.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Erin Blanchfield
    Erin Blanchfield 58.8%, Jasmine Jasudavicius 51.7%.

Working against the pick2

  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Jasmine Jasudavicius
    Erin Blanchfield 0.62, Jasmine Jasudavicius 0.78.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Jasmine Jasudavicius
    Erin Blanchfield 20.04, Jasmine Jasudavicius 15.91.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Jasmine Jasudavicius scores more knockdowns: 0.03 per round to Erin Blanchfield’s 0.00.
  • Erin Blanchfield lands 24.7 significant strikes per round to Jasmine Jasudavicius’s 15.8.
  • Jasmine Jasudavicius completes more of their takedown attempts: 44.6% to Erin Blanchfield’s 34.0%.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Erin Blanchfield 24.7, Jasmine Jasudavicius 15.8. Edge: Erin Blanchfield.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Erin Blanchfield 20.0, Jasmine Jasudavicius 15.9. Edge: Jasmine Jasudavicius.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Erin Blanchfield +4.7, Jasmine Jasudavicius -0.1. Edge: Erin Blanchfield.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Erin Blanchfield 44.4%, Jasmine Jasudavicius 44.5%. Edge: Jasmine Jasudavicius.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Erin Blanchfield 58.8%, Jasmine Jasudavicius 51.7%. Edge: Erin Blanchfield.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Erin Blanchfield 0.00, Jasmine Jasudavicius 0.03. Edge: Jasmine Jasudavicius.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Erin Blanchfield 1.81, Jasmine Jasudavicius 1.75. Edge: Erin Blanchfield.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Erin Blanchfield 0.62, Jasmine Jasudavicius 0.78. Edge: Jasmine Jasudavicius.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Erin Blanchfield 34.0%, Jasmine Jasudavicius 44.6%. Edge: Jasmine Jasudavicius.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Erin Blanchfield 78.3%, Jasmine Jasudavicius 75.0%. Edge: Erin Blanchfield.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Erin Blanchfield 1:49, Jasmine Jasudavicius 2:17. Edge: Jasmine Jasudavicius.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Erin Blanchfield 0.27, Jasmine Jasudavicius 0.19. Edge: Erin Blanchfield.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Erin Blanchfield 50.0%, Jasmine Jasudavicius 33.3%. Edge: Erin Blanchfield.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Erin Blanchfield 0, Jasmine Jasudavicius 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Erin Blanchfield 4, Jasmine Jasudavicius 3. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Erin Blanchfield 4, Jasmine Jasudavicius 6. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Erin Blanchfield 13:27, Jasmine Jasudavicius 11:20. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Erin Blanchfield 9, Jasmine Jasudavicius 12. Edge: Jasmine Jasudavicius.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 17 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 18 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Erin Blanchfield

UFC record 8-1 · 9 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker · Control Grappler

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED86.9
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING67.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Jasmine Jasudavicius

UFC record 9-3 · 12 detailed UFC fights · Control Grappler · Wrestling Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED87.9
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED78.9

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Published
What happened
Jasmine Jasudavicius defeated Erin Blanchfield by unanimous decision after three rounds. The model had Blanchfield at 72.7%, making this one of the card’s clearest misses.
What the model got right
The frozen inputs correctly recognized several of Blanchfield’s historical strengths: better prior UFC win rate, stronger striking-defense numbers, more significant strikes landed per round, and submission activity.
What the model missed
The model put too much weight on those career-level advantages. Jasudavicius had stronger takedown-production indicators, while Blanchfield entered with noticeable recent deterioration relative to her career baseline: her prior-three win rate, striking differential, and control differential were all below her career levels. Jasudavicius, meanwhile, retained very strong control numbers.
Takeaway
This is a strong case for the recent-form work already on the roadmap. Career quality was real, but the model was too confident when Blanchfield’s recent trajectory had weakened and Jasudavicius presented a legitimate wrestling/control challenge. It supports testing career + recent-state features, not manually lowering confidence after the fact.

Written after the result · updated 21 Oct 2026, 06:59 UTC. Post-hoc interpretation; it does not change the locked forecast or the record.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab