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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Sat 17 Oct 2026 · Bantamweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Steven Koslow won by SUB Rear Naked Choke · round 3, 4:31

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Chad AnheligervsSteven Koslow

Model pick: Steven Koslow (65.9%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 34 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Chad Anheliger: 5 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Steven Koslow: 1 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickSteven Koslow65.9%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Steven Koslow
    Chad Anheliger 39.0 yrs, Steven Koslow 29.0 yrs.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Steven Koslow
    Chad Anheliger 0.27, Steven Koslow 1.67.
  • ReachEdge: Steven Koslow
    Chad Anheliger 163 cm, Steven Koslow 175 cm.

Working against the pick3

  • Striking defenseEdge: Chad Anheliger
    Chad Anheliger 54.1%, Steven Koslow 40.4%.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Chad Anheliger
    Chad Anheliger 15.20, Steven Koslow 3.67.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Chad Anheliger
    Chad Anheliger 44.0%, Steven Koslow 37.9%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Chad Anheliger 15.2, Steven Koslow 3.7. Edge: Chad Anheliger.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Chad Anheliger 14.2, Steven Koslow 17.7. Edge: Chad Anheliger.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Chad Anheliger +1.0, Steven Koslow -14.0. Edge: Chad Anheliger.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Chad Anheliger 44.0%, Steven Koslow 37.9%. Edge: Chad Anheliger.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Chad Anheliger 54.1%, Steven Koslow 40.5%. Edge: Chad Anheliger.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Chad Anheliger 0.13, Steven Koslow 0.00. Edge: Chad Anheliger.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Chad Anheliger 0.73, Steven Koslow 3.00. Edge: Steven Koslow.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Chad Anheliger 0.27, Steven Koslow 1.67. Edge: Steven Koslow.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Chad Anheliger 36.4%, Steven Koslow 55.6%. Edge: Steven Koslow.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Chad Anheliger 27.3%, Steven Koslow —.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Chad Anheliger 0:37, Steven Koslow 1:33. Edge: Steven Koslow.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Chad Anheliger 0.13, Steven Koslow 0.33. Edge: Steven Koslow.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Chad Anheliger 50.0%, Steven Koslow —.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Chad Anheliger 1, Steven Koslow 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Chad Anheliger 0, Steven Koslow 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Chad Anheliger 1, Steven Koslow 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Chad Anheliger 14:56, Steven Koslow —. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Chad Anheliger 5, Steven Koslow 1. Edge: Chad Anheliger.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 17 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 2 Nov 2024. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Chad Anheliger

UFC record 2-3 · 5 detailed UFC fights · Balanced / Hybrid

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING83.7
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING76.1

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Steven Koslow

UFC record 0-1 · 1 detailed UFC fights · Limited UFC Sample

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.9
CardioEvidence: LIMITED80.1

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab