Marc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle Daukaus
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Sat 17 Oct 2026 · Middleweight
Official forecast
Result
✗ Forecast missedMarc-Andre Barriault won by KO/TKO Elbows · round 1, 4:28
Winner estimate
Model pick: Kyle Daukaus (66.7%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 33 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
- Marc-Andre Barriault: 17 prior detailed UFC fights
- Kyle Daukaus: 10 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fightModel pickKyle Daukaus66.7%
Supporting the pick3
- AgeEdge: Kyle DaukausMarc-Andre Barriault 36.0 yrs, Kyle Daukaus 33.0 yrs.
- Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Kyle DaukausMarc-Andre Barriault 26.82, Kyle Daukaus 13.06.
- Prior UFC lossesEdge: Kyle DaukausMarc-Andre Barriault 10, Kyle Daukaus 5.
Working against the pick2
- Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Marc-Andre BarriaultMarc-Andre Barriault 25.51, Kyle Daukaus 11.59.
- Striking defenseEdge: Marc-Andre BarriaultMarc-Andre Barriault 49.2%, Kyle Daukaus 42.3%.
Method and distance
Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.
Stat comparison
DescriptiveReason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Biggest statistical gaps
- Kyle Daukaus brings more wrestling volume: 2.24 takedown attempts per round to Marc-Andre Barriault’s 0.36.
- Kyle Daukaus has more takedown production: 0.53 takedowns landed per round to Marc-Andre Barriault’s 0.10.
- Kyle Daukaus controls more: 1:39 per round to Marc-Andre Barriault’s 0:28.
Striking
- Significant strikes landedper roundMarc-Andre Barriault 25.5, Kyle Daukaus 11.6. Edge: Marc-Andre Barriault.
- Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is betterMarc-Andre Barriault 26.8, Kyle Daukaus 13.1. Edge: Kyle Daukaus.
- Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per roundMarc-Andre Barriault -1.3, Kyle Daukaus -1.5. Edge: Marc-Andre Barriault.
- Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landedMarc-Andre Barriault 47.0%, Kyle Daukaus 49.5%. Edge: Kyle Daukaus.
- Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoidedMarc-Andre Barriault 49.2%, Kyle Daukaus 42.3%. Edge: Marc-Andre Barriault.
- Knockdownsper roundMarc-Andre Barriault 0.10, Kyle Daukaus 0.12. Edge: Kyle Daukaus.
Wrestling and grappling
- Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volumeMarc-Andre Barriault 0.36, Kyle Daukaus 2.24. Edge: Kyle Daukaus.
- Takedowns landedper round · takedown productionMarc-Andre Barriault 0.10, Kyle Daukaus 0.53. Edge: Kyle Daukaus.
- Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completedMarc-Andre Barriault 28.6%, Kyle Daukaus 23.7%. Edge: Marc-Andre Barriault.
- Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stoppedMarc-Andre Barriault 68.1%, Kyle Daukaus 71.4%. Edge: Kyle Daukaus.
- Control timeminutes:seconds per roundMarc-Andre Barriault 0:28, Kyle Daukaus 1:39. Edge: Kyle Daukaus.
- Submission attemptsper roundMarc-Andre Barriault 0.03, Kyle Daukaus 0.41. Edge: Kyle Daukaus.
Fight profile
- Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submissionMarc-Andre Barriault 66.7%, Kyle Daukaus 75.0%. Edge: Kyle Daukaus.
- Wins by KO/TKOUFC winsMarc-Andre Barriault 3, Kyle Daukaus 1. Style difference, no edge.
- Wins by submissionUFC winsMarc-Andre Barriault 1, Kyle Daukaus 2. Style difference, no edge.
- Wins by decisionUFC winsMarc-Andre Barriault 2, Kyle Daukaus 1. Style difference, no edge.
- Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)Marc-Andre Barriault 10:43, Kyle Daukaus 4:51. Style difference, no edge.
- Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbersMarc-Andre Barriault 17, Kyle Daukaus 10. Edge: Marc-Andre Barriault.
The fighters
Marc-Andre Barriault
Ratings
Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scaleKyle Daukaus
Ratings
Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scalePost-fight review
Published- What happened
- Marc-André Barriault defeated Kyle Daukaus by KO/TKO via elbows at 4:28 of Round 1. The model picked Daukaus at 66.7%.
- What the model got right
- The model identified legitimate advantages for Daukaus in areas such as grappling/control-related history and submission activity. The separate stored finish diagnostic also had the fight at 60.2% to finish, which matched the fight ending early, though that component forecast cannot be formally scored prospectively because its pre-event timestamp is not independently certified.
- What the model missed
- The frozen drivers contained two clear warning signs favoring Barriault: significant strikes landed per round and striking defense. Those opposing striking advantages were present before the fight but were outweighed by the factors pushing the model toward Daukaus.
- Takeaway
- This is a useful archetype miss: grappling advantages can be real while the striking matchup still creates a dangerous failure path. We should monitor whether the Winner model systematically underweights meaningful opposing striking advantages when backing a grappling-oriented fighter. Social summary:
Simulate in the Lab
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.