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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Julien Leblanc vs Gilbert Urbina

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Sat 17 Oct 2026 · Middleweight

Official forecast

Result

Not scored (card changed)

Result details unavailable.

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Julien LeblancvsGilbert Urbina

Model pick: Gilbert Urbina (58.3%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 42 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Julien Leblanc: 1 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data
  • Gilbert Urbina: 5 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickGilbert Urbina58.3%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Gilbert Urbina
    Julien Leblanc 34.0 yrs, Gilbert Urbina 30.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Gilbert Urbina
    Julien Leblanc 4.00, Gilbert Urbina 21.00.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Gilbert Urbina
    Julien Leblanc 0.00, Gilbert Urbina 0.57.

Working against the pick3

  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Julien Leblanc
    Julien Leblanc 7.00, Gilbert Urbina 14.86.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Julien Leblanc
    Julien Leblanc 66.7%, Gilbert Urbina 57.9%.
  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Julien Leblanc
    Julien Leblanc 1, Gilbert Urbina 3.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Julien Leblanc 4.0, Gilbert Urbina 21.0. Edge: Gilbert Urbina.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Julien Leblanc 7.0, Gilbert Urbina 14.9. Edge: Julien Leblanc.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Julien Leblanc -3.0, Gilbert Urbina +6.1. Edge: Gilbert Urbina.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Julien Leblanc 66.7%, Gilbert Urbina 57.9%. Edge: Julien Leblanc.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Julien Leblanc 46.2%, Gilbert Urbina 47.7%. Edge: Gilbert Urbina.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Julien Leblanc 0.00, Gilbert Urbina 0.43. Edge: Gilbert Urbina.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Julien Leblanc 0.00, Gilbert Urbina 1.29. Edge: Gilbert Urbina.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Julien Leblanc 0.00, Gilbert Urbina 0.57. Edge: Gilbert Urbina.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Julien Leblanc —, Gilbert Urbina 44.4%.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Julien Leblanc 0.0%, Gilbert Urbina 0.0%.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Julien Leblanc 0:00, Gilbert Urbina 0:54. Edge: Gilbert Urbina.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Julien Leblanc 0.00, Gilbert Urbina 0.14. Edge: Gilbert Urbina.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Julien Leblanc —, Gilbert Urbina 100.0%.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Julien Leblanc 0, Gilbert Urbina 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Julien Leblanc 0, Gilbert Urbina 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Julien Leblanc 0, Gilbert Urbina 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Julien Leblanc —, Gilbert Urbina 4:35. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Julien Leblanc 1, Gilbert Urbina 5. Edge: Gilbert Urbina.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 17 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 1 Aug 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Julien Leblanc

UFC record 0-1 · 1 detailed UFC fights · Limited UFC Sample

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Gilbert Urbina

UFC record 2-3 · 5 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker · Ground Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED78.7
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab