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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott · Sat 17 Oct 2026 · Welterweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Mike Malott won by KO/TKO Knee · round 2, 2:32

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Joaquin BuckleyvsMike Malott

Model pick: Mike Malott (58.0%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 42 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Joaquin Buckley: 17 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Mike Malott: 8 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickMike Malott58.0%

Supporting the pick3

  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Mike Malott
    Joaquin Buckley 6, Mike Malott 1.
  • Prior UFC win rateEdge: Mike Malott
    Joaquin Buckley 64.7%, Mike Malott 87.5%.
  • Current win streakEdge: Mike Malott
    Joaquin Buckley 0, Mike Malott 4.

Working against the pick1

  • AgeEdge: Joaquin Buckley
    Joaquin Buckley 32.0 yrs, Mike Malott 34.0 yrs.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Mike Malott hunts more submissions: 0.17 attempts per round to Joaquin Buckley’s 0.02.
  • Mike Malott is more accurate: 52.3% of significant strikes to Joaquin Buckley’s 36.4%.
  • Mike Malott controls more: 0:40 per round to Joaquin Buckley’s 0:29.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Joaquin Buckley 16.1, Mike Malott 16.7. Edge: Mike Malott.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Joaquin Buckley 13.8, Mike Malott 12.0. Edge: Mike Malott.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Joaquin Buckley +2.3, Mike Malott +4.7. Edge: Mike Malott.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Joaquin Buckley 36.4%, Mike Malott 52.3%. Edge: Mike Malott.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Joaquin Buckley 58.9%, Mike Malott 57.1%. Edge: Joaquin Buckley.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Joaquin Buckley 0.20, Mike Malott 0.28. Edge: Mike Malott.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Joaquin Buckley 0.93, Mike Malott 0.78. Edge: Joaquin Buckley.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Joaquin Buckley 0.42, Mike Malott 0.44. Edge: Mike Malott.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Joaquin Buckley 45.2%, Mike Malott 57.1%. Edge: Mike Malott.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Joaquin Buckley 70.2%, Mike Malott 72.7%. Edge: Mike Malott.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Joaquin Buckley 0:29, Mike Malott 0:40. Edge: Mike Malott.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Joaquin Buckley 0.02, Mike Malott 0.17. Edge: Mike Malott.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Joaquin Buckley 72.7%, Mike Malott 71.4%. Edge: Joaquin Buckley.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Joaquin Buckley 8, Mike Malott 3. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Joaquin Buckley 0, Mike Malott 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Joaquin Buckley 3, Mike Malott 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Joaquin Buckley 11:50, Mike Malott 10:23. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Joaquin Buckley 17, Mike Malott 8. Edge: Joaquin Buckley.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 17 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 9 May 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Joaquin Buckley

UFC record 11-6 · 17 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED78.0
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED87.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Mike Malott

UFC record 7-1 · 8 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING83.8
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING85.8

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Published
What happened
Mike Malott defeated Joaquin Buckley by KO/TKO at 2:32 of Round 2, landing the fight-ending knee and follow-up. The model picked Malott at 58.0%, so the Winner prediction was correct.
What the model got right
It correctly treated Malott as the slightly more likely winner rather than overstating the matchup. The stored component diagnostics also leaned toward a finish at 59.0%, which matched the fight ending inside the distance, although that component value does not have certified prospective timing and should not be counted as a formal component-model win.
What the model missed
The 58% probability reflected a close matchup and did not specifically identify how decisive Malott’s striking finish would be. The winner call was good, but there is not enough frozen evidence to claim the model specifically anticipated the knee/KO sequence.
Takeaway
Good example of appropriate uncertainty. A 58% pick does not mean dominance; it means a modest edge, and Malott converted that edge with a finish. Keep the Winner result as a clean success without retroactively crediting the model for details it did not formally forecast.

Written after the result · updated 21 Oct 2026, 06:59 UTC. Post-hoc interpretation; it does not change the locked forecast or the record.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

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