Model pick: Zach Reese (60.1%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 40 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Zach Reese: 9 prior detailed UFC fights
Mickey Gall: 13 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickZach Reese60.1%
Zach ReeseMickey Gall
+Supporting the pick3
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Zach Reese
Zach Reese 1.56, Mickey Gall -5.89.
1.56-5.89
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
AgeEdge: Zach Reese
Zach Reese 32.6 yrs, Mickey Gall 34.8 yrs.
32.6 yrs34.8 yrs
Takedown defenseEdge: Zach Reese
Zach Reese 55.0%, Mickey Gall 37.5%.
55.0%37.5%
−Working against the pick3
Striking defenseEdge: Mickey Gall
Zach Reese 44.3%, Mickey Gall 49.6%.
44.3%49.6%
Takedown accuracyEdge: Mickey Gall
Zach Reese 61.1%, Mickey Gall 32.0%.
61.1%32.0%
Submission attempts per roundEdge: Mickey Gall
Zach Reese 0.25, Mickey Gall 0.44.
0.250.44
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance34%
KO/TKO33%
Submission34%
Decision34%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Zach Reese
Mickey Gall
KO/TKO
22%
9%
Submission
18%
18%
Decision
20%
13%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Zach ReeseMickey Gall
Biggest statistical gaps
Zach Reese has more takedown production: 0.69 takedowns landed per round to Mickey Gall’s 0.32.
Zach Reese completes more of their takedown attempts: 61.1% to Mickey Gall’s 32.0%.
Zach Reese has the stronger takedown defense: 55.0% to Mickey Gall’s 37.5%.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Zach Reese 16.3, Mickey Gall 14.6. Edge: Zach Reese.
16.314.6
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Zach Reese 14.4, Mickey Gall 19.8. Edge: Zach Reese.
14.419.8
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Zach Reese +1.9, Mickey Gall -5.1. Edge: Zach Reese.
+1.9-5.1
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Zach Reese 54.1%, Mickey Gall 49.6%. Edge: Zach Reese.
54.1%49.6%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Zach Reese 44.3%, Mickey Gall 49.6%. Edge: Mickey Gall.
44.3%49.6%
Knockdownsper round
Zach Reese 0.06, Mickey Gall 0.08. Edge: Mickey Gall.
0.060.08
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Zach Reese 1.12, Mickey Gall 1.00. Edge: Zach Reese.
1.121.00
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Zach Reese 0.69, Mickey Gall 0.32. Edge: Zach Reese.
0.690.32
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Zach Reese 61.1%, Mickey Gall 32.0%. Edge: Zach Reese.
61.1%32.0%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Zach Reese 55.0%, Mickey Gall 37.5%. Edge: Zach Reese.
55.0%37.5%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Zach Reese 0:39, Mickey Gall 0:43. Edge: Mickey Gall.
0:390:43
Submission attemptsper round
Zach Reese 0.25, Mickey Gall 0.44. Edge: Mickey Gall.
0.250.44
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Zach Reese 50.0%, Mickey Gall 83.3%. Edge: Mickey Gall.
50.0%83.3%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Zach Reese 1, Mickey Gall 0. Style difference, no edge.
10
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Zach Reese 1, Mickey Gall 5. Style difference, no edge.
15
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Zach Reese 2, Mickey Gall 1. Style difference, no edge.
21
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Zach Reese 6:31, Mickey Gall 9:47. Style difference, no edge.
6:319:47
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Zach Reese 9, Mickey Gall 13. Edge: Mickey Gall.
913
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 31 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 11 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (9 detailed fights; as of Sat 11 Jul 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING80.6
CardioEvidence: LIMITED65.5
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (13 detailed fights; as of Sat 16 Nov 2024). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING73.6
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING73.5
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.
Simulate in the Lab
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
