Model pick: Luana Santos (81.4%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 19 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Yana Santos: 12 prior detailed UFC fights
Luana Santos: 7 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickLuana Santos81.4%
Yana SantosLuana Santos
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Luana Santos
Yana Santos 37.0 yrs, Luana Santos 26.5 yrs.
37.0 yrs26.5 yrs
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Luana Santos
Yana Santos 2.22, Luana Santos 9.98.
2.229.98
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Striking defenseEdge: Luana Santos
Yana Santos 52.8%, Luana Santos 64.4%.
52.8%64.4%
−Working against the pick3
Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Yana Santos
Yana Santos 21.16, Luana Santos 12.19.
21.1612.19
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Yana Santos
Yana Santos 2.84, Luana Santos 0.32.
2.840.32
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
Striking accuracyEdge: Yana Santos
Yana Santos 57.9%, Luana Santos 53.6%.
57.9%53.6%
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance63%
KO/TKO20%
Submission17%
Decision63%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Yana Santos
Luana Santos
KO/TKO
5%
13%
Submission
2%
17%
Decision
12%
51%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Yana SantosLuana Santos
Biggest statistical gaps
Luana Santos brings more wrestling volume: 1.81 takedown attempts per round to Yana Santos’s 0.53.
Luana Santos has more takedown production: 0.69 takedowns landed per round to Yana Santos’s 0.25.
Yana Santos scores more knockdowns: 0.03 per round to Luana Santos’s 0.00.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Yana Santos 21.2, Luana Santos 12.2. Edge: Yana Santos.
21.212.2
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Yana Santos 15.0, Luana Santos 11.8. Edge: Luana Santos.
15.011.8
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Yana Santos +6.2, Luana Santos +0.4. Edge: Yana Santos.
+6.2+0.4
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Yana Santos 57.9%, Luana Santos 53.6%. Edge: Yana Santos.
57.9%53.6%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Yana Santos 52.8%, Luana Santos 64.4%. Edge: Luana Santos.
52.8%64.4%
Knockdownsper round
Yana Santos 0.03, Luana Santos 0.00. Edge: Yana Santos.
0.030.00
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Yana Santos 0.53, Luana Santos 1.81. Edge: Luana Santos.
0.531.81
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Yana Santos 0.25, Luana Santos 0.69. Edge: Luana Santos.
0.250.69
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Yana Santos 47.1%, Luana Santos 37.9%. Edge: Yana Santos.
47.1%37.9%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Yana Santos 51.6%, Luana Santos 85.7%. Edge: Luana Santos.
51.6%85.7%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Yana Santos 1:25, Luana Santos 2:40. Edge: Luana Santos.
1:252:40
Submission attemptsper round
Yana Santos 0.03, Luana Santos 0.31. Edge: Luana Santos.
0.030.31
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Yana Santos 0.0%, Luana Santos 50.0%. Edge: Luana Santos.
0.0%50.0%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Yana Santos 0, Luana Santos 1. Style difference, no edge.
01
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Yana Santos 0, Luana Santos 2. Style difference, no edge.
02
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Yana Santos 7, Luana Santos 3. Style difference, no edge.
73
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Yana Santos 13:39, Luana Santos 12:14. Style difference, no edge.
13:3912:14
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Yana Santos 12, Luana Santos 7. Edge: Yana Santos.
127
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 31 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 20 Jun 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Yana Santos
UFC record 7-5 · 12 detailed UFC fights · Clinch Heavy · Volume Striker
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)89
Power69
Striking defense74
Takedown defense69
WrestlingProvisional measure72
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (12 detailed fights; as of Sat 4 Oct 2025). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING81.8
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED68.2
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 6-1 · 7 detailed UFC fights · Control Grappler · Wrestling Heavy
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)74
Power66
Striking defense87
Takedown defense88
WrestlingProvisional measure80
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (7 detailed fights; as of Sat 20 Jun 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED83.1
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING55.2
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.
Simulate in the Lab
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
