UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan · Sat 31 Oct 2026 · Featherweight · 3 rounds (official UFC listing)
Experimental estimate onlyLocked 27 Oct 2026, 04:21 UTC
Result
Not scored (no official forecast)
Dakota Hope won by S-DEC · round 3, 5:00
The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.
No official forecast: Dakota Hope has fewer than 3 detailed UFC fights on record.
Limited-data estimate
Experimental. Limited-data estimate. Experimental and not part of Fight Forecast's official record.
65.1%34.9%
Evidence: Very limited evidence · 7 prior detailed UFC fights vs 1 prior detailed UFC fight. No model pick is published for limited-data bouts.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Francis MarshallDakota Hope
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Francis Marshall 10.8, Dakota Hope 35.3. Edge: Dakota Hope.
10.835.3
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Francis Marshall 14.4, Dakota Hope 35.0. Edge: Francis Marshall.
14.435.0
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Francis Marshall -3.7, Dakota Hope +0.3. Edge: Dakota Hope.
-3.7+0.3
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Francis Marshall 29.3%, Dakota Hope 41.1%. Edge: Dakota Hope.
29.3%41.1%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Francis Marshall 53.6%, Dakota Hope 34.0%. Edge: Francis Marshall.
53.6%34.0%
Knockdownsper round
Francis Marshall 0.12, Dakota Hope 0.33. Edge: Dakota Hope.
0.120.33
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Francis Marshall 1.50, Dakota Hope 1.00. Edge: Francis Marshall.
1.501.00
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Francis Marshall 0.62, Dakota Hope 0.33. Edge: Francis Marshall.
0.620.33
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Francis Marshall 41.7%, Dakota Hope 33.3%. Edge: Francis Marshall.
41.7%33.3%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Francis Marshall 88.9%, Dakota Hope 100.0%. Edge: Dakota Hope.
88.9%100.0%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Francis Marshall 1:28, Dakota Hope 0:26. Edge: Francis Marshall.
1:280:26
Submission attemptsper round
Francis Marshall 0.19, Dakota Hope 0.00. Edge: Francis Marshall.
0.190.00
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Francis Marshall 50.0%, Dakota Hope —.
50.0%—
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Francis Marshall 1, Dakota Hope 0. Style difference, no edge.
10
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Francis Marshall 1, Dakota Hope 0. Style difference, no edge.
10
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Francis Marshall 2, Dakota Hope 0. Style difference, no edge.
20
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Francis Marshall 11:52, Dakota Hope —. Style difference, no edge.
11:52—
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Francis Marshall 7, Dakota Hope 1. Edge: Francis Marshall.
71
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 31 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
The fighters
Francis Marshall
UFC record 4-3 · 7 detailed UFC fights · Distance Striker · Control Grappler
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)63
Power76
Striking defense75
Takedown defense89
WrestlingProvisional measure81
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (7 detailed fights; as of Sat 25 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING83.2
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING87.5
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)—
Power—
Striking defense—
Takedown defense—
WrestlingProvisional measure—
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (1 detailed fights; as of Sat 4 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.
Simulate in the Lab
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
