Model pick: Ode Osbourne (53.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 47 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Ode Osbourne: 13 prior detailed UFC fights
Cody Durden: 17 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickOde Osbourne53.2%
Ode OsbourneCody Durden
+Supporting the pick3
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Ode Osbourne
Ode Osbourne 4.52, Cody Durden -0.54.
4.52-0.54
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
ReachEdge: Ode Osbourne
Ode Osbourne 185 cm, Cody Durden 170 cm.
185 cm170 cm
Takedown accuracyEdge: Ode Osbourne
Ode Osbourne 26.1%, Cody Durden 48.3%.
26.1%48.3%
−Working against the pick3
Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Cody Durden
Ode Osbourne 0.24, Cody Durden 1.10.
0.241.10
Striking output against prior oppositionEdge: Cody Durden
Ode Osbourne -7.30, Cody Durden -2.42.
-7.30-2.42
Striking output compared with opponents’ prior defense.
Takedown production against prior oppositionEdge: Cody Durden
Ode Osbourne -0.63, Cody Durden 0.32.
-0.630.32
Takedown production compared with opponents’ normal allowance.
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance59%
KO/TKO24%
Submission18%
Decision59%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Ode Osbourne
Cody Durden
KO/TKO
17%
7%
Submission
5%
12%
Decision
31%
27%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Ode OsbourneCody Durden
Biggest statistical gaps
Cody Durden controls more: 1:35 per round to Ode Osbourne’s 0:17.
Cody Durden has more takedown production: 1.10 takedowns landed per round to Ode Osbourne’s 0.24.
Cody Durden brings more wrestling volume: 2.28 takedown attempts per round to Ode Osbourne’s 0.92.
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 31 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 11 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (13 detailed fights; as of Sat 21 Feb 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING80.2
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING69.2
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 7-9-1 · 17 detailed UFC fights · Wrestling Heavy · Control Grappler
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)69
Power65
Striking defense69
Takedown defense65
WrestlingProvisional measure89
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (17 detailed fights; as of Sat 11 Jul 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED78.3
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED64.7
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.
Simulate in the Lab
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
