Model pick: Jacobe Smith (75.7%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 24 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Randy Brown: 22 prior detailed UFC fights
Jacobe Smith: 4 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickJacobe Smith75.7%
Randy BrownJacobe Smith
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Jacobe Smith
Randy Brown 36.3 yrs, Jacobe Smith 30.8 yrs.
36.3 yrs30.8 yrs
Striking accuracyEdge: Jacobe Smith
Randy Brown 47.1%, Jacobe Smith 63.4%.
47.1%63.4%
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Jacobe Smith
Randy Brown 3.29, Jacobe Smith 7.74.
3.297.74
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
−Working against the pick3
Takedown accuracyEdge: Randy Brown
Randy Brown 34.4%, Jacobe Smith 83.3%.
34.4%83.3%
Striking defenseEdge: Randy Brown
Randy Brown 53.5%, Jacobe Smith 49.0%.
53.5%49.0%
ReachEdge: Randy Brown
Randy Brown 198 cm, Jacobe Smith 183 cm.
198 cm183 cm
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance47%
KO/TKO33%
Submission20%
Decision47%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Randy Brown
Jacobe Smith
KO/TKO
10%
28%
Submission
3%
12%
Decision
11%
36%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Randy BrownJacobe Smith
Biggest statistical gaps
Jacobe Smith has more takedown production: 1.00 takedowns landed per round to Randy Brown’s 0.21.
Jacobe Smith completes more of their takedown attempts: 83.3% to Randy Brown’s 34.4%.
Jacobe Smith brings more wrestling volume: 1.20 takedown attempts per round to Randy Brown’s 0.60.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Randy Brown 19.2, Jacobe Smith 20.4. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
19.220.4
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Randy Brown 14.6, Jacobe Smith 10.4. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
14.610.4
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Randy Brown +4.5, Jacobe Smith +10.0. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
+4.5+10.0
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Randy Brown 47.1%, Jacobe Smith 63.3%. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
47.1%63.3%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Randy Brown 53.5%, Jacobe Smith 49.0%. Edge: Randy Brown.
53.5%49.0%
Knockdownsper round
Randy Brown 0.11, Jacobe Smith 0.20. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
0.110.20
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Randy Brown 0.60, Jacobe Smith 1.20. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
0.601.20
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Randy Brown 0.21, Jacobe Smith 1.00. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
0.211.00
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Randy Brown 34.4%, Jacobe Smith 83.3%. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
34.4%83.3%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Randy Brown 74.6%, Jacobe Smith 100.0%. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
74.6%100.0%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Randy Brown 0:42, Jacobe Smith 1:21. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
0:421:21
Submission attemptsper round
Randy Brown 0.15, Jacobe Smith 0.20. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
0.150.20
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Randy Brown 50.0%, Jacobe Smith 100.0%. Edge: Jacobe Smith.
50.0%100.0%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Randy Brown 4, Jacobe Smith 3. Style difference, no edge.
43
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Randy Brown 3, Jacobe Smith 1. Style difference, no edge.
31
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Randy Brown 7, Jacobe Smith 0. Style difference, no edge.
70
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Randy Brown 10:29, Jacobe Smith 9:03. Style difference, no edge.
10:299:03
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Randy Brown 22, Jacobe Smith 4. Edge: Randy Brown.
224
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 31 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 3 Oct 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (22 detailed fights; as of Sat 11 Apr 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED77.0
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED70.3
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 4-0 · 4 detailed UFC fights · Ground Heavy · Power Striker
Ratings
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)85
Power81
Striking defense72
Takedown defense87
WrestlingProvisional measure85
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (4 detailed fights; as of Sat 3 Oct 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.7
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.
Simulate in the Lab
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
