UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan · Sat 31 Oct 2026 · Welterweight · 3 rounds (official UFC listing)
Experimental estimate onlyLocked 27 Oct 2026, 04:21 UTC
Result
Not scored (no official forecast)
Rodrigo Sezinando won by KO/TKO · round 2, 5:00
The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.
No official forecast: Rodrigo Sezinando and Theodor Berggren have fewer than 3 detailed UFC fights on record.
Limited-data estimate
Experimental. Limited-data estimate. Experimental and not part of Fight Forecast's official record.
50.4%49.6%
Evidence: Very limited evidence · 1 prior detailed UFC fight vs 1 prior detailed UFC fight. No model pick is published for limited-data bouts.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Rodrigo SezinandoTheodor Berggren
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Rodrigo Sezinando 10.0, Theodor Berggren 11.5. Edge: Theodor Berggren.
10.011.5
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Rodrigo Sezinando 39.0, Theodor Berggren 35.5. Edge: Theodor Berggren.
39.035.5
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Rodrigo Sezinando -29.0, Theodor Berggren -24.0. Edge: Theodor Berggren.
-29.0-24.0
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Rodrigo Sezinando 27.8%, Theodor Berggren 35.9%. Edge: Theodor Berggren.
27.8%35.9%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Rodrigo Sezinando 42.6%, Theodor Berggren 33.6%. Edge: Rodrigo Sezinando.
42.6%33.6%
Knockdownsper round
Rodrigo Sezinando 0.00, Theodor Berggren 0.00.
0.000.00
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Rodrigo Sezinando 4.00, Theodor Berggren 0.00. Edge: Rodrigo Sezinando.
4.000.00
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Rodrigo Sezinando 1.00, Theodor Berggren 0.00. Edge: Rodrigo Sezinando.
1.000.00
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Rodrigo Sezinando 25.0%, Theodor Berggren —.
25.0%—
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Rodrigo Sezinando 66.7%, Theodor Berggren —.
66.7%—
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Rodrigo Sezinando 1:02, Theodor Berggren 0:08. Edge: Rodrigo Sezinando.
1:020:08
Submission attemptsper round
Rodrigo Sezinando 0.00, Theodor Berggren 0.00.
0.000.00
Fight profile
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Rodrigo Sezinando 0, Theodor Berggren 0. Style difference, no edge.
00
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Rodrigo Sezinando 0, Theodor Berggren 0. Style difference, no edge.
00
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Rodrigo Sezinando 0, Theodor Berggren 0. Style difference, no edge.
00
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Rodrigo Sezinando 1, Theodor Berggren 1.
11
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 31 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 27 Jun 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)—
Power—
Striking defense—
Takedown defense—
WrestlingProvisional measure—
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (1 detailed fights; as of Sat 13 Sep 2025). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
Ratings V2Provisional — fewer than 5 detailed UFC fights
Striking (offense)—
Power—
Striking defense—
Takedown defense—
WrestlingProvisional measure—
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (1 detailed fights; as of Sat 27 Jun 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.
Simulate in the Lab
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
