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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Sat 26 Sep 2026 · Women's Bantamweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Ailin Perez won by U-DEC · round 3, 5:00

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Norma DumontvsAilin Perez

Model pick: Ailin Perez (69.1%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 31 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Norma Dumont: 12 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Ailin Perez: 7 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickAilin Perez69.1%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Ailin Perez
    Norma Dumont 35.0 yrs, Ailin Perez 31.0 yrs.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Ailin Perez
    Norma Dumont 0.47, Ailin Perez 1.61.
  • Current win streakEdge: Ailin Perez
    Norma Dumont 0, Ailin Perez 6.

Working against the pick2

  • Striking defenseEdge: Norma Dumont
    Norma Dumont 64.3%, Ailin Perez 56.5%.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Norma Dumont
    Norma Dumont 19.08, Ailin Perez 14.22.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Ailin Perez brings more wrestling volume: 3.28 takedown attempts per round to Norma Dumont’s 0.86.
  • Ailin Perez has more takedown production: 1.61 takedowns landed per round to Norma Dumont’s 0.47.
  • Ailin Perez hunts more submissions: 0.06 attempts per round to Norma Dumont’s 0.00.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Norma Dumont 19.1, Ailin Perez 14.2. Edge: Norma Dumont.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Norma Dumont 11.6, Ailin Perez 7.8. Edge: Ailin Perez.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Norma Dumont +7.5, Ailin Perez +6.4. Edge: Norma Dumont.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Norma Dumont 51.0%, Ailin Perez 56.3%. Edge: Ailin Perez.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Norma Dumont 64.3%, Ailin Perez 56.5%. Edge: Norma Dumont.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Norma Dumont 0.06, Ailin Perez 0.06.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Norma Dumont 0.86, Ailin Perez 3.28. Edge: Ailin Perez.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Norma Dumont 0.47, Ailin Perez 1.61. Edge: Ailin Perez.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Norma Dumont 54.8%, Ailin Perez 49.1%. Edge: Norma Dumont.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Norma Dumont 71.9%, Ailin Perez 72.7%. Edge: Ailin Perez.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Norma Dumont 1:11, Ailin Perez 2:12. Edge: Ailin Perez.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Norma Dumont 0.00, Ailin Perez 0.06. Edge: Ailin Perez.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Norma Dumont 0.0%, Ailin Perez 16.7%. Edge: Ailin Perez.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Norma Dumont 0, Ailin Perez 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Norma Dumont 0, Ailin Perez 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Norma Dumont 9, Ailin Perez 5. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Norma Dumont 16:00, Ailin Perez 13:09. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Norma Dumont 12, Ailin Perez 7. Edge: Norma Dumont.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 26 Sep 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Norma Dumont

UFC record 9-3 · 12 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING83.2
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED75.3

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Ailin Perez

UFC record 6-1 · 7 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED83.9
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING77.3

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab