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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

John Castaneda vs Alatengheili

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Sat 26 Sep 2026 · Bantamweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Alatengheili won by S-DEC · round 3, 5:00

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

John CastanedavsAlatengheili

Model pick: John Castaneda (53.9%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 46 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • John Castaneda: 9 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Alatengheili: 9 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickJohn Castaneda53.9%

Supporting the pick3

  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: John Castaneda
    John Castaneda 24.96, Alatengheili 13.60.
  • ReachEdge: John Castaneda
    John Castaneda 180 cm, Alatengheili 168 cm.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: John Castaneda
    John Castaneda 51.6%, Alatengheili 32.7%.

Working against the pick3

  • Prior UFC win rateEdge: Alatengheili
    John Castaneda 44.4%, Alatengheili 55.6%.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Alatengheili
    John Castaneda 52.9%, Alatengheili 57.3%.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Alatengheili
    John Castaneda 0.46, Alatengheili 0.56.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • John Castaneda hunts more submissions: 0.04 attempts per round to Alatengheili’s 0.00.
  • John Castaneda lands 25.0 significant strikes per round to Alatengheili’s 13.6.
  • John Castaneda scores more knockdowns: 0.17 per round to Alatengheili’s 0.04.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    John Castaneda 25.0, Alatengheili 13.6. Edge: John Castaneda.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    John Castaneda 26.5, Alatengheili 24.8. Edge: Alatengheili.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    John Castaneda -1.5, Alatengheili -11.2. Edge: John Castaneda.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    John Castaneda 51.6%, Alatengheili 32.7%. Edge: John Castaneda.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    John Castaneda 52.9%, Alatengheili 57.3%. Edge: Alatengheili.
  • Knockdownsper round
    John Castaneda 0.17, Alatengheili 0.04. Edge: John Castaneda.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    John Castaneda 1.17, Alatengheili 1.28. Edge: Alatengheili.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    John Castaneda 0.46, Alatengheili 0.56. Edge: Alatengheili.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    John Castaneda 39.3%, Alatengheili 43.8%. Edge: Alatengheili.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    John Castaneda 78.3%, Alatengheili 75.0%. Edge: John Castaneda.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    John Castaneda 0:47, Alatengheili 0:41. Edge: John Castaneda.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    John Castaneda 0.04, Alatengheili 0.00. Edge: John Castaneda.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    John Castaneda 50.0%, Alatengheili 20.0%. Edge: John Castaneda.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    John Castaneda 1, Alatengheili 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    John Castaneda 1, Alatengheili 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    John Castaneda 2, Alatengheili 4. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    John Castaneda 11:48, Alatengheili 13:13. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    John Castaneda 9, Alatengheili 9.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 26 Sep 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 18 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

John Castaneda

UFC record 4-4-1 · 9 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED79.0
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING72.1

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Alatengheili

UFC record 5-3-1 · 9 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED87.1
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING77.6

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab