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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Sat 26 Sep 2026 · Middleweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Rodolfo Vieira won by U-DEC · round 3, 5:00

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Rodolfo VieiravsRobert Bryczek

Model pick: Rodolfo Vieira (56.1%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 44 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Rodolfo Vieira: 11 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Robert Bryczek: 3 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickRodolfo Vieira56.1%

Supporting the pick3

  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Rodolfo Vieira
    Rodolfo Vieira 0.85, Robert Bryczek 0.11.
  • Takedown accuracyEdge: Rodolfo Vieira
    Rodolfo Vieira 22.2%, Robert Bryczek 100.0%.
  • Prior UFC win rateEdge: Rodolfo Vieira
    Rodolfo Vieira 54.5%, Robert Bryczek 33.3%.

Working against the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Robert Bryczek
    Rodolfo Vieira 37.0 yrs, Robert Bryczek 36.0 yrs.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Robert Bryczek
    Rodolfo Vieira 49.2%, Robert Bryczek 55.2%.
  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Robert Bryczek
    Rodolfo Vieira 5, Robert Bryczek 2.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Rodolfo Vieira brings more wrestling volume: 3.81 takedown attempts per round to Robert Bryczek’s 0.11.
  • Rodolfo Vieira has more takedown production: 0.85 takedowns landed per round to Robert Bryczek’s 0.11.
  • Rodolfo Vieira controls more: 1:21 per round to Robert Bryczek’s 0:13.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Rodolfo Vieira 15.2, Robert Bryczek 13.0. Edge: Rodolfo Vieira.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Rodolfo Vieira 18.9, Robert Bryczek 20.9. Edge: Rodolfo Vieira.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Rodolfo Vieira -3.7, Robert Bryczek -7.9. Edge: Rodolfo Vieira.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Rodolfo Vieira 54.3%, Robert Bryczek 38.0%. Edge: Rodolfo Vieira.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Rodolfo Vieira 49.2%, Robert Bryczek 55.2%. Edge: Robert Bryczek.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Rodolfo Vieira 0.04, Robert Bryczek 0.11. Edge: Robert Bryczek.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Rodolfo Vieira 3.81, Robert Bryczek 0.11. Edge: Rodolfo Vieira.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Rodolfo Vieira 0.85, Robert Bryczek 0.11. Edge: Rodolfo Vieira.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Rodolfo Vieira 22.2%, Robert Bryczek 100.0%. Edge: Robert Bryczek.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Rodolfo Vieira 60.0%, Robert Bryczek 71.4%. Edge: Robert Bryczek.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Rodolfo Vieira 1:21, Robert Bryczek 0:13. Edge: Rodolfo Vieira.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Rodolfo Vieira 0.27, Robert Bryczek 0.11. Edge: Rodolfo Vieira.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Rodolfo Vieira 83.3%, Robert Bryczek 100.0%. Edge: Robert Bryczek.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Rodolfo Vieira 0, Robert Bryczek 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Rodolfo Vieira 5, Robert Bryczek 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Rodolfo Vieira 1, Robert Bryczek 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Rodolfo Vieira 10:32, Robert Bryczek 13:22. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Rodolfo Vieira 11, Robert Bryczek 3. Edge: Rodolfo Vieira.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 26 Sep 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 2 May 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Rodolfo Vieira

UFC record 6-5 · 11 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED81.1
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED79.7

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Robert Bryczek

UFC record 1-2 · 3 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.6
CardioEvidence: LIMITED72.5

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab