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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Sat 26 Sep 2026 · Women's Strawweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Yazmin Jauregui won by KO/TKO Punches · round 1, 1:02

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Vanessa DemopoulosvsYazmin Jauregui

Model pick: Yazmin Jauregui (80.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 20 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Vanessa Demopoulos: 10 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Yazmin Jauregui: 5 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickYazmin Jauregui80.2%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Yazmin Jauregui
    Vanessa Demopoulos 38.0 yrs, Yazmin Jauregui 27.0 yrs.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Yazmin Jauregui
    Vanessa Demopoulos 40.6%, Yazmin Jauregui 54.8%.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Yazmin Jauregui
    Vanessa Demopoulos 17.35, Yazmin Jauregui 28.20.

Working against the pick0

  • No opposing factors listed.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Vanessa Demopoulos has more takedown production: 0.12 takedowns landed per round to Yazmin Jauregui’s 0.00.
  • Vanessa Demopoulos completes more of their takedown attempts: 10.3% to Yazmin Jauregui’s 0.0%.
  • Yazmin Jauregui has the stronger takedown defense: 100.0% to Vanessa Demopoulos’s 27.8%.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Vanessa Demopoulos 17.3, Yazmin Jauregui 28.2. Edge: Yazmin Jauregui.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Vanessa Demopoulos 27.4, Yazmin Jauregui 22.3. Edge: Yazmin Jauregui.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Vanessa Demopoulos -10.0, Yazmin Jauregui +5.9. Edge: Yazmin Jauregui.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Vanessa Demopoulos 39.9%, Yazmin Jauregui 39.4%. Edge: Vanessa Demopoulos.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Vanessa Demopoulos 40.6%, Yazmin Jauregui 54.8%. Edge: Yazmin Jauregui.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Vanessa Demopoulos 0.04, Yazmin Jauregui 0.20. Edge: Yazmin Jauregui.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Vanessa Demopoulos 1.12, Yazmin Jauregui 0.50. Edge: Vanessa Demopoulos.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Vanessa Demopoulos 0.12, Yazmin Jauregui 0.00. Edge: Vanessa Demopoulos.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Vanessa Demopoulos 10.3%, Yazmin Jauregui 0.0%. Edge: Vanessa Demopoulos.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Vanessa Demopoulos 27.8%, Yazmin Jauregui 100.0%. Edge: Yazmin Jauregui.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Vanessa Demopoulos 0:37, Yazmin Jauregui 0:18. Edge: Vanessa Demopoulos.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Vanessa Demopoulos 0.08, Yazmin Jauregui 0.00. Edge: Vanessa Demopoulos.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Vanessa Demopoulos 20.0%, Yazmin Jauregui 33.3%. Edge: Yazmin Jauregui.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Vanessa Demopoulos 0, Yazmin Jauregui 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Vanessa Demopoulos 1, Yazmin Jauregui 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Vanessa Demopoulos 4, Yazmin Jauregui 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Vanessa Demopoulos 12:19, Yazmin Jauregui 6:52. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Vanessa Demopoulos 10, Yazmin Jauregui 5. Edge: Vanessa Demopoulos.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 26 Sep 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 14 Jun 2025. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Vanessa Demopoulos

UFC record 5-5 · 10 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED83.9
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING73.0

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Yazmin Jauregui

UFC record 3-2 · 5 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING76.8
CardioEvidence: LIMITED72.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab