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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Sat 26 Sep 2026 · Lightweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Elves Brener won by KO/TKO Punch · round 1, 4:14

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Elves BrenervsJosiah Harrell

Model pick: Elves Brener (57.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 43 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Elves Brener: 6 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Josiah Harrell: 1 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickElves Brener57.2%

Supporting the pick3

  • Striking defenseEdge: Elves Brener
    Elves Brener 50.8%, Josiah Harrell 29.8%.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Elves Brener
    Elves Brener 76.0%, Josiah Harrell 0.0%.
  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Elves Brener
    Elves Brener 22.56, Josiah Harrell 7.00.

Working against the pick2

  • AgeEdge: Josiah Harrell
    Elves Brener 28.0 yrs, Josiah Harrell 27.0 yrs.
  • Prior UFC lossesEdge: Josiah Harrell
    Elves Brener 3, Josiah Harrell 1.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Elves Brener 22.6, Josiah Harrell 7.0. Edge: Elves Brener.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Elves Brener 27.8, Josiah Harrell 33.0. Edge: Elves Brener.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Elves Brener -5.2, Josiah Harrell -26.0. Edge: Elves Brener.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Elves Brener 47.5%, Josiah Harrell 50.0%. Edge: Josiah Harrell.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Elves Brener 50.8%, Josiah Harrell 29.8%. Edge: Elves Brener.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Elves Brener 0.12, Josiah Harrell 0.00. Edge: Elves Brener.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Elves Brener 1.88, Josiah Harrell 2.00. Edge: Josiah Harrell.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Elves Brener 0.31, Josiah Harrell 0.00. Edge: Elves Brener.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Elves Brener 16.7%, Josiah Harrell 0.0%. Edge: Elves Brener.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Elves Brener 76.0%, Josiah Harrell 0.0%. Edge: Elves Brener.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Elves Brener 0:23, Josiah Harrell 0:01. Edge: Elves Brener.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Elves Brener 0.00, Josiah Harrell 0.00.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Elves Brener 66.7%, Josiah Harrell —.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Elves Brener 2, Josiah Harrell 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Elves Brener 0, Josiah Harrell 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Elves Brener 1, Josiah Harrell 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Elves Brener 14:13, Josiah Harrell —. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Elves Brener 6, Josiah Harrell 1. Edge: Elves Brener.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 26 Sep 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 21 Feb 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Elves Brener

UFC record 3-3 · 6 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING79.2
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING84.6

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Josiah Harrell

UFC record 0-1 · 1 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: UNKNOWN—
CardioEvidence: UNKNOWN—

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab