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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Sat 26 Sep 2026 · Bantamweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Montel Jackson won by KO/TKO Punch · round 2, 2:39

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Montel JacksonvsRicky Simon

Model pick: Montel Jackson (60.7%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 39 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Montel Jackson: 13 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Ricky Simon: 17 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickMontel Jackson60.7%

Supporting the pick3

  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Montel Jackson
    Montel Jackson 6.32, Ricky Simon 18.78.
  • ReachEdge: Montel Jackson
    Montel Jackson 190 cm, Ricky Simon 175 cm.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Montel Jackson
    Montel Jackson 53.8%, Ricky Simon 41.9%.

Working against the pick3

  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Ricky Simon
    Montel Jackson 0.81, Ricky Simon 1.20.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Ricky Simon
    Montel Jackson 67.0%, Ricky Simon 78.4%.
  • Current loss streakEdge: Ricky Simon
    Montel Jackson 2, Ricky Simon 0.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Montel Jackson absorbs fewer strikes: 6.3 per round to Ricky Simon’s 18.8.
  • Ricky Simon brings more wrestling volume: 3.20 takedown attempts per round to Montel Jackson’s 1.32.
  • Montel Jackson completes more of their takedown attempts: 61.0% to Ricky Simon’s 37.4%.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Montel Jackson 13.3, Ricky Simon 14.2. Edge: Ricky Simon.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Montel Jackson 6.3, Ricky Simon 18.8. Edge: Montel Jackson.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Montel Jackson +7.0, Ricky Simon -4.6. Edge: Montel Jackson.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Montel Jackson 53.8%, Ricky Simon 41.9%. Edge: Montel Jackson.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Montel Jackson 59.3%, Ricky Simon 60.4%. Edge: Ricky Simon.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Montel Jackson 0.39, Ricky Simon 0.11. Edge: Montel Jackson.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Montel Jackson 1.32, Ricky Simon 3.20. Edge: Ricky Simon.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Montel Jackson 0.81, Ricky Simon 1.20. Edge: Ricky Simon.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Montel Jackson 61.0%, Ricky Simon 37.4%. Edge: Montel Jackson.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Montel Jackson 67.0%, Ricky Simon 78.4%. Edge: Ricky Simon.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Montel Jackson 1:25, Ricky Simon 1:22. Edge: Montel Jackson.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Montel Jackson 0.10, Ricky Simon 0.09. Edge: Montel Jackson.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Montel Jackson 44.4%, Ricky Simon 50.0%. Edge: Ricky Simon.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Montel Jackson 3, Ricky Simon 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Montel Jackson 1, Ricky Simon 3. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Montel Jackson 5, Ricky Simon 5. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Montel Jackson 11:25, Ricky Simon 12:37. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Montel Jackson 13, Ricky Simon 17. Edge: Ricky Simon.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 26 Sep 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Montel Jackson

UFC record 9-4 · 13 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING85.6
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED74.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Ricky Simon

UFC record 10-6-1 · 17 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED74.9
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED75.9

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab