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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Sat 26 Sep 2026 · Light Heavyweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Christian Edwards won by KO/TKO Punch · round 3, 1:47

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Rodolfo BellatovsChristian Edwards

Model pick: Christian Edwards (57.1%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 43 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Rodolfo Bellato: 5 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Christian Edwards: 1 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickChristian Edwards57.1%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Christian Edwards
    Rodolfo Bellato 30.0 yrs, Christian Edwards 27.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Christian Edwards
    Rodolfo Bellato 29.30, Christian Edwards 12.00.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Christian Edwards
    Rodolfo Bellato 47.1%, Christian Edwards 55.0%.

Working against the pick3

  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Rodolfo Bellato
    Rodolfo Bellato 25.20, Christian Edwards 12.00.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Rodolfo Bellato
    Rodolfo Bellato 0.50, Christian Edwards 0.00.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Rodolfo Bellato
    Rodolfo Bellato 59.0%, Christian Edwards 50.7%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Rodolfo Bellato 25.2, Christian Edwards 12.0. Edge: Rodolfo Bellato.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Rodolfo Bellato 29.3, Christian Edwards 12.0. Edge: Christian Edwards.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Rodolfo Bellato -4.1, Christian Edwards +0.0. Edge: Christian Edwards.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Rodolfo Bellato 59.0%, Christian Edwards 50.7%. Edge: Rodolfo Bellato.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Rodolfo Bellato 47.1%, Christian Edwards 55.0%. Edge: Christian Edwards.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Rodolfo Bellato 0.10, Christian Edwards 0.00. Edge: Rodolfo Bellato.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Rodolfo Bellato 1.30, Christian Edwards 1.33. Edge: Christian Edwards.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Rodolfo Bellato 0.50, Christian Edwards 0.00. Edge: Rodolfo Bellato.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Rodolfo Bellato 38.5%, Christian Edwards 0.0%. Edge: Rodolfo Bellato.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Rodolfo Bellato 92.3%, Christian Edwards —.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Rodolfo Bellato 0:41, Christian Edwards 1:27. Edge: Christian Edwards.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Rodolfo Bellato 0.00, Christian Edwards 0.00.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Rodolfo Bellato 100.0%, Christian Edwards —.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Rodolfo Bellato 2, Christian Edwards 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Rodolfo Bellato 0, Christian Edwards 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Rodolfo Bellato 0, Christian Edwards 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Rodolfo Bellato 11:40, Christian Edwards —. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Rodolfo Bellato 5, Christian Edwards 1. Edge: Rodolfo Bellato.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 26 Sep 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 16 May 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Rodolfo Bellato

UFC record 2-1-1 · 5 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING76.7
CardioEvidence: LIMITED93.2

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Christian Edwards

UFC record 0-1 · 1 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.3
CardioEvidence: LIMITED70.7

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab