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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Sat 26 Sep 2026 · Bantamweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Brady Hiestand won by SUB Rear Naked Choke · round 2, 4:07

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Brady HiestandvsRinya Nakamura

Model pick: Rinya Nakamura (55.2%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 45 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Brady Hiestand: 4 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Rinya Nakamura: 5 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickRinya Nakamura55.2%

Supporting the pick3

  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Rinya Nakamura
    Brady Hiestand 17.58, Rinya Nakamura 6.45.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Rinya Nakamura
    Brady Hiestand 51.2%, Rinya Nakamura 64.1%.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Rinya Nakamura
    Brady Hiestand 42.9%, Rinya Nakamura 100.0%.

Working against the pick2

  • AgeEdge: Brady Hiestand
    Brady Hiestand 27.0 yrs, Rinya Nakamura 31.0 yrs.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Brady Hiestand
    Brady Hiestand 1.50, Rinya Nakamura 0.64.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Brady Hiestand brings more wrestling volume: 3.25 takedown attempts per round to Rinya Nakamura’s 0.73.
  • Rinya Nakamura absorbs fewer strikes: 6.5 per round to Brady Hiestand’s 17.6.
  • Brady Hiestand has more takedown production: 1.50 takedowns landed per round to Rinya Nakamura’s 0.64.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Brady Hiestand 12.7, Rinya Nakamura 11.6. Edge: Brady Hiestand.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Brady Hiestand 17.6, Rinya Nakamura 6.5. Edge: Rinya Nakamura.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Brady Hiestand -4.9, Rinya Nakamura +5.2. Edge: Rinya Nakamura.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Brady Hiestand 50.8%, Rinya Nakamura 52.5%. Edge: Rinya Nakamura.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Brady Hiestand 51.2%, Rinya Nakamura 64.1%. Edge: Rinya Nakamura.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Brady Hiestand 0.00, Rinya Nakamura 0.27. Edge: Rinya Nakamura.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Brady Hiestand 3.25, Rinya Nakamura 0.73. Edge: Brady Hiestand.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Brady Hiestand 1.50, Rinya Nakamura 0.64. Edge: Brady Hiestand.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Brady Hiestand 46.2%, Rinya Nakamura 87.5%. Edge: Rinya Nakamura.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Brady Hiestand 42.9%, Rinya Nakamura 100.0%. Edge: Rinya Nakamura.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Brady Hiestand 2:13, Rinya Nakamura 2:12. Edge: Brady Hiestand.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Brady Hiestand 0.33, Rinya Nakamura 0.36. Edge: Rinya Nakamura.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Brady Hiestand 66.7%, Rinya Nakamura 50.0%. Edge: Brady Hiestand.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Brady Hiestand 1, Rinya Nakamura 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Brady Hiestand 1, Rinya Nakamura 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Brady Hiestand 1, Rinya Nakamura 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Brady Hiestand 13:44, Rinya Nakamura 10:21. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Brady Hiestand 4, Rinya Nakamura 5. Edge: Rinya Nakamura.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 26 Sep 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 2 Aug 2025. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Brady Hiestand

UFC record 3-1 · 4 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING78.7
CardioEvidence: LIMITED61.9

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Rinya Nakamura

UFC record 4-1 · 5 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.5
CardioEvidence: LIMITED67.5

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

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