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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos · Sat 26 Sep 2026 · Bantamweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Raul Rosas Jr. won by KO/TKO · round 5, 1:38

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Raul Rosas Jr.vsRaoni Barcelos

Model pick: Raul Rosas Jr. (69.0%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 31 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Raul Rosas Jr.: 7 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Raoni Barcelos: 15 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickRaul Rosas Jr.69.0%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Raul Rosas Jr.
    Raul Rosas Jr. 21.0 yrs, Raoni Barcelos 39.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Raul Rosas Jr.
    Raul Rosas Jr. 5.94, Raoni Barcelos 20.41.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Raul Rosas Jr.
    Raul Rosas Jr. 2.00, Raoni Barcelos 0.80.

Working against the pick3

  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Raoni Barcelos
    Raul Rosas Jr. 5.94, Raoni Barcelos 22.39.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Raoni Barcelos
    Raul Rosas Jr. 54.8%, Raoni Barcelos 60.6%.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Raoni Barcelos
    Raul Rosas Jr. 41.1%, Raoni Barcelos 51.7%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Raoni Barcelos lands 22.4 significant strikes per round to Raul Rosas Jr.’s 5.9.
  • Raul Rosas Jr. absorbs fewer strikes: 5.9 per round to Raoni Barcelos’s 20.4.
  • Raoni Barcelos has the stronger takedown defense: 87.8% to Raul Rosas Jr.’s 33.3%.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Raul Rosas Jr. 5.9, Raoni Barcelos 22.4. Edge: Raoni Barcelos.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Raul Rosas Jr. 5.9, Raoni Barcelos 20.4. Edge: Raul Rosas Jr..
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Raul Rosas Jr. +0.0, Raoni Barcelos +2.0. Edge: Raoni Barcelos.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Raul Rosas Jr. 41.1%, Raoni Barcelos 51.7%. Edge: Raoni Barcelos.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Raul Rosas Jr. 54.8%, Raoni Barcelos 60.6%. Edge: Raoni Barcelos.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Raul Rosas Jr. 0.06, Raoni Barcelos 0.12. Edge: Raoni Barcelos.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Raul Rosas Jr. 3.69, Raoni Barcelos 2.54. Edge: Raul Rosas Jr..
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Raul Rosas Jr. 2.00, Raoni Barcelos 0.80. Edge: Raul Rosas Jr..
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Raul Rosas Jr. 54.2%, Raoni Barcelos 31.7%. Edge: Raul Rosas Jr..
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Raul Rosas Jr. 33.3%, Raoni Barcelos 87.8%. Edge: Raoni Barcelos.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Raul Rosas Jr. 2:31, Raoni Barcelos 1:11. Edge: Raul Rosas Jr..
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Raul Rosas Jr. 0.25, Raoni Barcelos 0.22. Edge: Raul Rosas Jr..

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Raul Rosas Jr. 50.0%, Raoni Barcelos 36.4%. Edge: Raul Rosas Jr..
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Raul Rosas Jr. 1, Raoni Barcelos 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Raul Rosas Jr. 2, Raoni Barcelos 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Raul Rosas Jr. 3, Raoni Barcelos 7. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Raul Rosas Jr. 11:23, Raoni Barcelos 13:48. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Raul Rosas Jr. 7, Raoni Barcelos 15. Edge: Raoni Barcelos.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 26 Sep 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Raul Rosas Jr.

UFC record 6-1 · 7 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING83.9
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING67.4

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Raoni Barcelos

UFC record 11-4 · 15 detailed UFC fights

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED82.0
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED94.8

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

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