Model pick: Terrance McKinney (78.8%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 21 times in 100 similar fights.
Evidence and reliability
Jim Miller: 47 prior detailed UFC fights
Terrance McKinney: 14 prior detailed UFC fights
Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.
Why the model leans this way
Locked before the fight
Model pickTerrance McKinney78.8%
Jim MillerTerrance McKinney
+Supporting the pick3
AgeEdge: Terrance McKinney
Jim Miller 43.2 yrs, Terrance McKinney 32.2 yrs.
43.2 yrs32.2 yrs
Striking prevention against prior oppositionEdge: Terrance McKinney
Jim Miller 0.43, Terrance McKinney 9.01.
0.439.01
Striking prevention compared with opponents’ usual output.
Striking accuracyEdge: Terrance McKinney
Jim Miller 42.1%, Terrance McKinney 55.8%.
42.1%55.8%
−Working against the pick3
Striking defenseEdge: Jim Miller
Jim Miller 56.7%, Terrance McKinney 41.6%.
56.7%41.6%
Submission activity against prior oppositionEdge: Jim Miller
Jim Miller 0.34, Terrance McKinney 0.30.
0.340.30
Submission activity compared with opponents’ prior baseline.
Longest win streakEdge: Jim Miller
Jim Miller 7, Terrance McKinney 2.
72
The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow. Opponent-adjusted career evidence; no injury, camp, fight-date strength index or direct 730-day form input. Not prospectively proven.
Method and distance
Separate component · small live sample
Goes the distance36%
KO/TKO30%
Submission34%
Decision36%
Outcome breakdown (who wins × how)
Outcome
Jim Miller
Terrance McKinney
KO/TKO
3%
38%
Submission
10%
12%
Decision
8%
28%
Separate method and distance components with a small live sample. They do not change the winner estimate. The outcome breakdown is an approximation built from the winner estimate and the fight-level finish estimate.
Research components calculated 4 Nov 2026, 07:59 UTC. Separate from the locked Winner forecast; no official grading credit.
Stat comparison
Descriptive
Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.
Jim MillerTerrance McKinney
Biggest statistical gaps
Terrance McKinney scores more knockdowns: 0.19 per round to Jim Miller’s 0.06.
Terrance McKinney has the stronger takedown defense: 72.7% to Jim Miller’s 47.6%.
Terrance McKinney absorbs fewer strikes: 10.2 per round to Jim Miller’s 14.9.
Striking
Significant strikes landedper round
Jim Miller 12.7, Terrance McKinney 17.1. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
12.717.1
Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
Jim Miller 14.9, Terrance McKinney 10.2. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
14.910.2
Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
Jim Miller -2.2, Terrance McKinney +6.9. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
-2.2+6.9
Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
Jim Miller 42.1%, Terrance McKinney 55.8%. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
42.1%55.8%
Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
Jim Miller 56.8%, Terrance McKinney 41.6%. Edge: Jim Miller.
56.8%41.6%
Knockdownsper round
Jim Miller 0.06, Terrance McKinney 0.19. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
0.060.19
Wrestling and grappling
Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
Jim Miller 0.96, Terrance McKinney 0.94. Edge: Jim Miller.
0.960.94
Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
Jim Miller 0.43, Terrance McKinney 0.44. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
0.430.44
Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
Jim Miller 45.0%, Terrance McKinney 46.7%. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
45.0%46.7%
Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
Jim Miller 47.6%, Terrance McKinney 72.7%. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
47.6%72.7%
Control timeminutes:seconds per round
Jim Miller 0:54, Terrance McKinney 0:58. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
0:540:58
Submission attemptsper round
Jim Miller 0.50, Terrance McKinney 0.31. Edge: Jim Miller.
0.500.31
Fight profile
Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
Jim Miller 71.4%, Terrance McKinney 100.0%. Edge: Terrance McKinney.
71.4%100.0%
Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
Jim Miller 6, Terrance McKinney 5. Style difference, no edge.
65
Wins by submissionUFC wins
Jim Miller 14, Terrance McKinney 3. Style difference, no edge.
143
Wins by decisionUFC wins
Jim Miller 8, Terrance McKinney 0. Style difference, no edge.
80
Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
Jim Miller 9:35, Terrance McKinney 2:26. Style difference, no edge.
9:352:26
Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
Jim Miller 47, Terrance McKinney 14. Edge: Jim Miller.
4714
Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 14 Nov 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 11 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (47 detailed fights; as of Sat 9 May 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: ESTABLISHED88.8
CardioEvidence: ESTABLISHED60.0
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
UFC record 8-6 · 14 detailed UFC fights · Ground Heavy · Power Striker
Ratings
Ratings V2Rated
Striking (offense)86
Power85
Striking defense65
Takedown defense79
WrestlingProvisional measure80
Ratings V2 descriptive 0–100 scores (14 detailed fights; as of Sat 11 Jul 2026). Not win probabilities or rankings. Missing values stay unavailable.
Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED74.7
CardioEvidence: LIMITED89.3
Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.
About these ratings
Ratings are domain-specific descriptive scales. Equal point differences across different domains do not imply equal absolute skill differences.
Striking (offense) · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 striking-offense score built from recorded significant strikes landed per round, significant-strike accuracy and significant-strike differential.
Power · Ratings V2
Recorded knockdown and KO/TKO-win threat under the Ratings V2 contract (knockdowns per round, KO/TKO win rate); not literal measured punching force.
Striking defense · Ratings V2
Recorded strike avoidance (striking defense) and bounded absorption (strikes absorbed per round) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Takedown defense · Ratings V2
Recorded defense against incoming takedown attempts (takedown defense rate) under the Ratings V2 contract.
Wrestling · Ratings V2
Ratings V2 wrestling-offense score: recorded takedowns landed per round and takedown accuracy. Not ground control or complete grappling.
Chin · R1 research scale
Exposure-adjusted recorded knockdown resistance. This is not a direct biological measurement of chin, recovery, or injury resistance.
Cardio · R1 research scale
Recorded later-round striking activity and effectiveness retention. This is not a direct physiological fitness measurement.
Ratings V2 scores follow each fighter's latest recorded state; R1 research-scale scores are frozen through 17 Oct 2026. Recovery is separate metadata, not a rating. No combined rating exists.
The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.
