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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Alice Pereira vs Daria Zhelezniakova

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Women's Bantamweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Alice Pereira won by KO/TKO · round 1, 5:00

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Alice PereiravsDaria Zhelezniakova

Model pick: Alice Pereira (71.9%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 28 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Alice Pereira: 2 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data
  • Daria Zhelezniakova: 4 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickAlice Pereira71.9%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Alice Pereira
    Alice Pereira 20.0 yrs, Daria Zhelezniakova 30.0 yrs.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Alice Pereira
    Alice Pereira 75.0%, Daria Zhelezniakova 50.0%.
  • Takedown accuracyEdge: Alice Pereira
    Alice Pereira 0.0%, Daria Zhelezniakova 100.0%.

Working against the pick3

  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Daria Zhelezniakova
    Alice Pereira 13.80, Daria Zhelezniakova 20.20.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Daria Zhelezniakova
    Alice Pereira 36.7%, Daria Zhelezniakova 40.2%.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Daria Zhelezniakova
    Alice Pereira 0.00, Daria Zhelezniakova 0.10.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Alice Pereira 13.8, Daria Zhelezniakova 20.2. Edge: Daria Zhelezniakova.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Alice Pereira 15.2, Daria Zhelezniakova 16.5. Edge: Alice Pereira.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Alice Pereira -1.4, Daria Zhelezniakova +3.7. Edge: Daria Zhelezniakova.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Alice Pereira 36.7%, Daria Zhelezniakova 40.2%. Edge: Daria Zhelezniakova.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Alice Pereira 67.0%, Daria Zhelezniakova 64.1%. Edge: Alice Pereira.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Alice Pereira 0.20, Daria Zhelezniakova 0.00. Edge: Alice Pereira.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Alice Pereira 0.60, Daria Zhelezniakova 0.10. Edge: Alice Pereira.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Alice Pereira 0.00, Daria Zhelezniakova 0.10. Edge: Daria Zhelezniakova.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Alice Pereira 0.0%, Daria Zhelezniakova 100.0%. Edge: Daria Zhelezniakova.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Alice Pereira 75.0%, Daria Zhelezniakova 50.0%. Edge: Alice Pereira.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Alice Pereira 0:04, Daria Zhelezniakova 0:04. Edge: Alice Pereira.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Alice Pereira 0.00, Daria Zhelezniakova 0.00.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Alice Pereira 100.0%, Daria Zhelezniakova 0.0%. Edge: Alice Pereira.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Alice Pereira 1, Daria Zhelezniakova 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Alice Pereira 0, Daria Zhelezniakova 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Alice Pereira 0, Daria Zhelezniakova 2. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Alice Pereira 9:24, Daria Zhelezniakova 11:17. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Alice Pereira 2, Daria Zhelezniakova 4. Edge: Daria Zhelezniakova.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 10 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 18 Apr 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Alice Pereira

UFC record 1-1 · 2 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker · Distance Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED81.0
CardioEvidence: LIMITED63.9

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Daria Zhelezniakova

UFC record 2-2 · 4 detailed UFC fights · Distance Striker · Volume Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED82.0
CardioEvidence: LIMITED72.5

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab