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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Bantamweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Otari Tanzilovi won by KO/TKO Kick · round 2, 2:39

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Malcolm WellmakervsOtari Tanzilovi

Model pick: Otari Tanzilovi (57.6%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 42 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Malcolm Wellmaker: 4 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Otari Tanzilovi: 1 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickOtari Tanzilovi57.6%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Otari Tanzilovi
    Malcolm Wellmaker 32.0 yrs, Otari Tanzilovi 28.0 yrs.
  • Takedowns landed per roundEdge: Otari Tanzilovi
    Malcolm Wellmaker 0.00, Otari Tanzilovi 1.67.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Otari Tanzilovi
    Malcolm Wellmaker 42.9%, Otari Tanzilovi 100.0%.

Working against the pick3

  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Malcolm Wellmaker
    Malcolm Wellmaker 16.14, Otari Tanzilovi 25.33.
  • Striking defenseEdge: Malcolm Wellmaker
    Malcolm Wellmaker 51.5%, Otari Tanzilovi 44.9%.
  • Prior UFC win rateEdge: Malcolm Wellmaker
    Malcolm Wellmaker 50.0%, Otari Tanzilovi 0.0%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Malcolm Wellmaker 17.6, Otari Tanzilovi 19.3. Edge: Otari Tanzilovi.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Malcolm Wellmaker 16.1, Otari Tanzilovi 25.3. Edge: Malcolm Wellmaker.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Malcolm Wellmaker +1.4, Otari Tanzilovi -6.0. Edge: Malcolm Wellmaker.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Malcolm Wellmaker 53.5%, Otari Tanzilovi 65.2%. Edge: Otari Tanzilovi.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Malcolm Wellmaker 51.5%, Otari Tanzilovi 44.9%. Edge: Malcolm Wellmaker.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Malcolm Wellmaker 0.29, Otari Tanzilovi 0.00. Edge: Malcolm Wellmaker.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Malcolm Wellmaker 0.43, Otari Tanzilovi 3.00. Edge: Otari Tanzilovi.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Malcolm Wellmaker 0.00, Otari Tanzilovi 1.67. Edge: Otari Tanzilovi.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Malcolm Wellmaker 0.0%, Otari Tanzilovi 55.6%. Edge: Otari Tanzilovi.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Malcolm Wellmaker 42.9%, Otari Tanzilovi 100.0%. Edge: Otari Tanzilovi.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Malcolm Wellmaker 0:11, Otari Tanzilovi 1:25. Edge: Otari Tanzilovi.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Malcolm Wellmaker 0.00, Otari Tanzilovi 0.00.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Malcolm Wellmaker 100.0%, Otari Tanzilovi —.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Malcolm Wellmaker 2, Otari Tanzilovi 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Malcolm Wellmaker 0, Otari Tanzilovi 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Malcolm Wellmaker 0, Otari Tanzilovi 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Malcolm Wellmaker 2:37, Otari Tanzilovi —. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Malcolm Wellmaker 4, Otari Tanzilovi 1. Edge: Malcolm Wellmaker.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 10 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 20 Jun 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Malcolm Wellmaker

UFC record 2-2 · 4 detailed UFC fights · Power Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.1
CardioEvidence: LIMITED75.1

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Otari Tanzilovi

UFC record 0-1 · 1 detailed UFC fights · Limited UFC Sample

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.2
CardioEvidence: LIMITED73.3

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Published
What happened
Tanzilovi defeated Wellmaker by second-round KO at 2:39. The first round was competitive, and Wellmaker hurt Tanzilovi during an exchange. Tanzilovi showed speed and grappling early, then increased his activity in Round 2 and landed the head kick that produced the finish.
What the model got right
The model favored Tanzilovi at 57.6% and identified his youth, takedown activity, takedown defense and striking accuracy as advantages. His speed and grappling were visible parts of the matchup before he ultimately found the knockout.
What the model missed
The prediction was built on an extremely limited UFC sample for Tanzilovi. Wellmaker’s defensive advantages and his ability to hurt Tanzilovi in Round 1 showed why the matchup carried substantially more uncertainty than the raw pick alone might suggest.
Takeaway
This was a correct pick, but not one that should increase confidence in low-sample forecasting. The three-fight eligibility guardrail is the proper response: promising numbers from one UFC fight should not be treated like an established statistical profile.

Written after the result · updated 13 Oct 2026, 10:08 UTC. Post-hoc interpretation; it does not change the locked forecast or the record.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab