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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Lightweight

Official forecast

Result

✓ Forecast correct

Francisco Prado won by KO/TKO Punches · round 1, 4:23

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Francisco PradovsIsmael Bonfim

Model pick: Francisco Prado (51.7%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 48 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Francisco Prado: 6 prior detailed UFC fights
  • Ismael Bonfim: 6 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickFrancisco Prado51.7%

Supporting the pick2

  • AgeEdge: Francisco Prado
    Francisco Prado 24.0 yrs, Ismael Bonfim 30.0 yrs.
  • Submission attempts per roundEdge: Francisco Prado
    Francisco Prado 0.25, Ismael Bonfim 0.00.

Working against the pick3

  • Significant strikes landed per roundEdge: Ismael Bonfim
    Francisco Prado 18.19, Ismael Bonfim 22.80.
  • Striking accuracyEdge: Ismael Bonfim
    Francisco Prado 43.6%, Ismael Bonfim 54.5%.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Ismael Bonfim
    Francisco Prado 40.0%, Ismael Bonfim 72.7%.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Biggest statistical gaps

  • Francisco Prado controls more: 0:46 per round to Ismael Bonfim’s 0:23.
  • Francisco Prado hunts more submissions: 0.25 attempts per round to Ismael Bonfim’s 0.00.
  • Ismael Bonfim has the stronger takedown defense: 72.7% to Francisco Prado’s 40.0%.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Francisco Prado 18.2, Ismael Bonfim 22.8. Edge: Ismael Bonfim.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Francisco Prado 21.3, Ismael Bonfim 19.8. Edge: Ismael Bonfim.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Francisco Prado -3.1, Ismael Bonfim +3.0. Edge: Ismael Bonfim.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Francisco Prado 43.6%, Ismael Bonfim 54.5%. Edge: Ismael Bonfim.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Francisco Prado 54.2%, Ismael Bonfim 53.2%. Edge: Francisco Prado.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Francisco Prado 0.06, Ismael Bonfim 0.10. Edge: Ismael Bonfim.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Francisco Prado 1.31, Ismael Bonfim 1.20. Edge: Francisco Prado.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Francisco Prado 0.25, Ismael Bonfim 0.40. Edge: Ismael Bonfim.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Francisco Prado 19.1%, Ismael Bonfim 33.3%. Edge: Ismael Bonfim.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Francisco Prado 40.0%, Ismael Bonfim 72.7%. Edge: Ismael Bonfim.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Francisco Prado 0:46, Ismael Bonfim 0:23. Edge: Francisco Prado.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Francisco Prado 0.25, Ismael Bonfim 0.00. Edge: Francisco Prado.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Francisco Prado 100.0%, Ismael Bonfim 50.0%. Edge: Francisco Prado.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Francisco Prado 1, Ismael Bonfim 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Francisco Prado 0, Ismael Bonfim 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Francisco Prado 0, Ismael Bonfim 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Francisco Prado 12:49, Ismael Bonfim 7:48. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Francisco Prado 6, Ismael Bonfim 6.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 10 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Francisco Prado

UFC record 1-5 · 6 detailed UFC fights · Balanced / Hybrid

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING84.1
CardioEvidence: DEVELOPING87.0

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Ismael Bonfim

UFC record 2-4 · 6 detailed UFC fights · Volume Striker · Distance Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING80.3
CardioEvidence: LIMITED88.2

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab