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FIGHT FORECAST
Matchup

Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan · Sat 10 Oct 2026 · Light Heavyweight

Official forecast

Result

✗ Forecast missed

Brendson Ribeiro won by SUB Guillotine Choke · round 1, 1:49

The locked pre-fight forecast below is shown exactly as it was before the event.

Winner estimate

Felipe FrancovsBrendson Ribeiro

Model pick: Felipe Franco (69.0%). The model expects the other fighter to win about 31 times in 100 similar fights.

Evidence and reliability

  • Felipe Franco: 2 prior detailed UFC fights — limited data
  • Brendson Ribeiro: 8 prior detailed UFC fights

Official forecasts require at least 3 prior detailed UFC fights for both fighters. The estimate is a probability from one model, not a guarantee; small differences between fighters carry real uncertainty.

Why the model leans this way

Locked before the fight
Model pickFelipe Franco69.0%

Supporting the pick3

  • AgeEdge: Felipe Franco
    Felipe Franco 25.0 yrs, Brendson Ribeiro 30.0 yrs.
  • Significant strikes absorbed per roundEdge: Felipe Franco
    Felipe Franco 9.00, Brendson Ribeiro 14.80.
  • Takedown defenseEdge: Felipe Franco
    Felipe Franco 85.7%, Brendson Ribeiro 32.1%.

Working against the pick1

  • ReachEdge: Brendson Ribeiro
    Felipe Franco 193 cm, Brendson Ribeiro 206 cm.

The model's own locked explanation fields, captured before the fight: what moved the model, not causes. "Against prior opposition" measures compare a fighter with what their opponents usually allow.

Method and distance

Method and distance estimates are unavailable for this bout.

Stat comparison

Descriptive

Reason through the matchup yourself. The brighter side of each bar marks the fighter with the edge.

Striking

  • Significant strikes landedper round
    Felipe Franco 12.0, Brendson Ribeiro 11.2. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Significant strikes absorbedper round · lower is better
    Felipe Franco 9.0, Brendson Ribeiro 14.8. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Striking differentiallanded minus absorbed, per round
    Felipe Franco +3.0, Brendson Ribeiro -3.6. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Striking accuracyshare of significant strikes landed
    Felipe Franco 51.7%, Brendson Ribeiro 39.4%. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Striking defenseshare of opponents’ significant strikes avoided
    Felipe Franco 50.0%, Brendson Ribeiro 52.2%. Edge: Brendson Ribeiro.
  • Knockdownsper round
    Felipe Franco 0.00, Brendson Ribeiro 0.07. Edge: Brendson Ribeiro.

Wrestling and grappling

  • Takedown attemptsper round · wrestling volume
    Felipe Franco 1.40, Brendson Ribeiro 0.53. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Takedowns landedper round · takedown production
    Felipe Franco 0.60, Brendson Ribeiro 0.20. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Takedown accuracyshare of own attempts completed
    Felipe Franco 42.9%, Brendson Ribeiro 37.5%. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Takedown defenseshare of opponents’ attempts stopped
    Felipe Franco 85.7%, Brendson Ribeiro 32.1%. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Control timeminutes:seconds per round
    Felipe Franco 0:46, Brendson Ribeiro 0:09. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Submission attemptsper round
    Felipe Franco 0.00, Brendson Ribeiro 0.13. Edge: Brendson Ribeiro.

Fight profile

  • Finish rateshare of UFC wins by KO/TKO or submission
    Felipe Franco 100.0%, Brendson Ribeiro 50.0%. Edge: Felipe Franco.
  • Wins by KO/TKOUFC wins
    Felipe Franco 1, Brendson Ribeiro 0. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by submissionUFC wins
    Felipe Franco 0, Brendson Ribeiro 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Wins by decisionUFC wins
    Felipe Franco 0, Brendson Ribeiro 1. Style difference, no edge.
  • Average fight timeelapsed time per UFC bout (minutes:seconds)
    Felipe Franco —, Brendson Ribeiro 6:30. Style difference, no edge.
  • Detailed UFC fightsmore fights = more evidence behind these numbers
    Felipe Franco 2, Brendson Ribeiro 8. Edge: Brendson Ribeiro.

Career UFC totals from fights before Sat 10 Oct 2026 only (pre-fight cutoff; this bout and anything after it are excluded); latest included fight Sat 25 Jul 2026. These are descriptive numbers, not the model's locked inputs, and they are not opponent-adjusted. Small samples move a lot.

The fighters

Felipe Franco

UFC record 1-1 · 2 detailed UFC fights · Ground Heavy

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: LIMITED80.8
CardioEvidence: LIMITED80.7

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Brendson Ribeiro

UFC record 2-6 · 8 detailed UFC fights · Distance Striker

Ratings

Ratings V2 scores are not available for this fighter yet.

Chin and Cardio · Frozen through October 17, 2026
R1 research scale
ChinEvidence: DEVELOPING78.9
CardioEvidence: LIMITED59.8

Source: R1 public_candidate_display · status: Research candidate · as of Sat 17 Oct 2026. Separate frozen research scale; fights after October 17, 2026 are not reflected.

Fighter profile →

Post-fight review

Review pending

A written review of what happened versus the locked forecast has not been published for this bout yet.

Simulate in the Lab

The Lab's simulators currently run on a fixed library of historical example fights, so this exact matchup is not available there yet. They are research tools and can disagree with the official forecast.

Open the Lab